NFL player props
A projection for every player line DraftKings posts (via ESPN), from each player's recent games, with the model's chance of the over or under next to the market's. Confidence: high ≥ 62%, medium ≥ 56% for the model's side. Players listed Out, Doubtful or on IR are removed; Questionable and Day-To-Day are flagged. ESPN currently shows NFL prop lines without their prices, so the market column is blank and returns assume the standard -110.
Player lines are set by people who know about minutes limits, injuries and matchups that this model does not. Check the backtest below before trusting any lean. Treat these as projections, not bets. Personal and educational use only; 1-800-GAMBLER if gambling stops being fun.
139 props
Cardinals @ Cowboys
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 / 2.7 | Over | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Trey McBrideARI · TE | Receiving yards | 73.5 | 65.7 | 67.2 / 67.4 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB | Rushing yards | 75.5 | 69.1 | 80.2 / 67.4 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 / 2.2 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.92 TD | 1.4 / 1.3 | Yes | 62% | – | – | High |
| Teagan QuitorianoARI · TE | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.84 TD | 2 / 2 | Yes | 58% | – | – | High |
| CeeDee LambDAL · WR | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.59 TD | 0.6 / 0.9 | Yes | 46% | – | – | Medium |
| Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.51 TD | 0.4 / 0.4 | Yes | 41% | – | – | Medium |
| Trey McBrideARI · TE | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.46 TD | 0.4 / 0.6 | Yes | 37% | – | – | Medium |
Falcons @ Buccaneers
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonATL · RB | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 / 3.6 | Under | 66% | – | – | High |
| Tez JohnsonTB · WR | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 / 1.3 | Under | 64% | – | – | High |
| Drake LondonATL · WR | Receptions | 6.5 | 5.2 | 6.4 / 5.4 | Under | 64% | – | – | High |
| Cade OttonTB · TE | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 / 2.7 | Under | 62% | – | – | Medium |
| Austin HooperATL · TE | Receptions | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.6 | Over | 62% | – | – | Medium |
| Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4 / 3.9 | Under | 62% | – | – | Medium |
| Kyle PittsATL · TE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.8 / 2.9 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Tez JohnsonTB · WR | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 25.2 | 25.8 / 25.4 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Cade OttonTB · TE | Receiving yards | 33.5 | 27.9 | 24.4 / 26.6 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Ted Hurst IIITB · WR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 / 1.8 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Kyle PittsATL · TE | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 30.4 | 35.2 / 27.3 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Chris Godwin Jr.TB · WR | Receiving yards | 41.5 | 36.2 | 31.4 / 34.7 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Bucky IrvingTB · RB | Receiving yards | 17.5 | 14.7 | 5.8 / 11.1 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Bijan RobinsonATL · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.77 TD | 0.8 / 0.7 | Yes | 55% | – | – | High |
| Bucky IrvingTB · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.74 TD | 0.8 / 0.7 | Yes | 54% | – | – | High |
Ravens @ Bills
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ MooreBUF · WRQuestionable | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.2 | 3 / 3 | Under | 67% | – | – | High |
| DJ MooreBUF · WRQuestionable | Receiving yards | 52.5 | 42.5 | 44.5 / 44.5 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Zay FlowersBAL · WR | Receptions | 6.5 | 6.0 | 7 / 6.7 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · WR | Receiving yards | 33.5 | 28.0 | 25.3 / 25.3 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Devontez WalkerBAL · WR | Receptions | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 / 0.8 | Over | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Devontez WalkerBAL · WR | Receiving yards | 0.5 | 17.7 | 15 / 15 | Over | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Derrick HenryBAL · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.89 TD | 0.8 / 1.1 | Yes | 61% | – | – | High |
| James CookBUF · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.88 TD | 1.2 / 1 | Yes | 60% | – | – | High |
| Josh AllenBUF · QB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.70 TD | 1.2 / 1.3 | Yes | 52% | – | – | High |
Browns @ Steelers
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan SampsonCLE · RB | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.5 | Under | 64% | – | – | High |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB | Receptions | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 / 3.2 | Over | 61% | – | – | Medium |
| KC ConcepcionCLE · WR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4 / 4.3 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Denzel BostonCLE · WR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 / 2.9 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Germie BernardPIT · WR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 / 4.5 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.62 TD | 0.6 / 0.5 | Yes | 47% | – | – | Medium |
| Audric EstiméCLE · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.60 TD | 1 / 1 | Yes | 46% | – | – | Medium |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.57 TD | 0.4 / 0.3 | Yes | 44% | – | – | Medium |
Colts @ Jaguars
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh CameronJAX · WR | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 / 1.3 | Under | 64% | – | – | High |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 / 2.2 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Travis HunterJAX · CB | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1 / 1 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Jonathan TaylorIND · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.90 TD | 0.8 / 1.1 | Yes | 61% | – | – | High |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.67 TD | 0.8 / 0.7 | Yes | 50% | – | – | Medium |
| Parker WashingtonJAX · WR | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.45 TD | 0.6 / 0.7 | Yes | 37% | – | – | Medium |
Raiders @ Jets
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adonai MitchellNYJ · WR | Receptions | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3 / 3 | Over | 62% | – | – | High |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.2 / 5.3 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Michael MayerLV · TE | Receptions | 2.5 | 4.0 | 4.4 / 4.4 | Over | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Brock BowersLV · TE | Receptions | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.8 / 6.8 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB | Rushing yards | 32.5 | 29.2 | 29.4 / 27.9 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Kenyon SadiqNYJ · TE | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 / 2.3 | Over | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Ashton JeantyLV · RB | Rushing yards | 51.5 | 49.0 | 35.6 / 46.9 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR | Receiving yards | 63.5 | 58.9 | 61.6 / 63.4 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Ashton JeantyLV · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.62 TD | 0.4 / 0.6 | Yes | 47% | – | – | Medium |
| Breece HallNYJ · RBQuestionable | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.57 TD | 0.3 / 0.3 | Yes | 44% | – | – | Medium |
| Braelon AllenNYJ · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.50 TD | 0.2 / 0.3 | Yes | 40% | – | – | Medium |
| Brock BowersLV · TE | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.47 TD | 0.6 / 0.6 | Yes | 38% | – | – | Medium |
Vikings @ Lions
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonMIN · WR | Receptions | 6.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 / 4.6 | Under | 72% | – | – | High |
| Justin JeffersonMIN · WR | Receiving yards | 75.5 | 55.3 | 60.4 / 60.4 | Under | 61% | – | – | Medium |
| Jordan AddisonMIN · WR | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 / 2.6 | Under | 61% | – | – | Medium |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR | Receptions | 7.5 | 6.8 | 7.2 / 7.7 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| T.J. HockensonMIN · TE | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.6 / 4.5 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Jauan JenningsMIN · WR | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.8 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 1.16 TD | 1.4 / 1.5 | Yes | 70% | – | – | High |
| Aaron JonesMIN · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.59 TD | 0.2 / 0.3 | Yes | 45% | – | – | Medium |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.55 TD | 0.6 / 0.8 | Yes | 43% | – | – | Medium |
| Jordan MasonMIN · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.55 TD | 0.5 / 0.5 | Yes | 43% | – | – | Medium |
Titans @ Bengals
· 1:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.1 | 4.6 / 4.1 | Under | 66% | – | – | High |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR | Receptions | 6.5 | 5.0 | 6 / 5.3 | Under | 65% | – | – | High |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR | Receiving yards | 81.5 | 56.4 | 67.8 / 58.5 | Under | 63% | – | – | High |
| Elic AyomanorTEN · WR | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.4 | Under | 62% | – | – | Medium |
| Tony PollardTEN · RB | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.6 | Under | 61% | – | – | Medium |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR | Receiving yards | 47.5 | 34.4 | 31.6 / 29.3 | Under | 60% | – | – | Medium |
| Gunnar HelmTEN · TE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 / 2 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Chase BrownCIN · RB | Rushing yards | 59.5 | 50.5 | 45.8 / 47.5 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Gunnar HelmTEN · TE | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 17.1 | 11.2 / 14 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Elic AyomanorTEN · WR | Receiving yards | 31.5 | 26.4 | 19.4 / 25.3 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Michael CarterTEN · RB | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1 / 1 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Calvin RidleyTEN · WRQuestionable | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 18.8 | 16.2 / 16.2 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 / 2.2 | Over | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Tony PollardTEN · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.68 TD | 0.8 / 0.6 | Yes | 50% | – | – | High |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.53 TD | 1 / 0.8 | Yes | 42% | – | – | Medium |
| Mike GesickiCIN · TE | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.49 TD | 1 / 1 | Yes | 39% | – | – | Medium |
| Chase BrownCIN · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.46 TD | 0 / 0.2 | Yes | 37% | – | – | Medium |
Chargers @ Rams
· 4:05 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkeyLAC · WR | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 / 2.6 | Under | 63% | – | – | High |
| Ladd McConkeyLAC · WR | Receiving yards | 48.5 | 37.8 | 40 / 40 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Quentin JohnstonLAC · WR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.6 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Blake CorumLAR · RB | Rushing yards | 47.5 | 41.8 | 36.6 / 45.1 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Kimani VidalLAC · RB | Rushing yards | 24.5 | 23.1 | 21.8 / 21.8 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.78 TD | 0.8 / 0.9 | Yes | 56% | – | – | High |
| Puka NacuaLAR · WR | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.53 TD | 0.6 / 0.6 | Yes | 42% | – | – | Medium |
| Omarion HamptonLAC · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.53 TD | 0.4 / 0.5 | Yes | 42% | – | – | Medium |
| Blake CorumLAR · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.44 TD | 0.6 / 0.4 | Yes | 36% | – | – | Medium |
Chiefs @ Broncos
· 4:25 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland SuttonDEN · WR | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 / 2.3 | Under | 63% | – | – | High |
| Jonah ColemanDEN · RB | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 / 1.7 | Under | 62% | – | – | High |
| Courtland SuttonDEN · WR | Receiving yards | 39.5 | 27.6 | 26.4 / 24 | Under | 61% | – | – | Medium |
| Travis KelceKC · TE | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 / 4 | Under | 60% | – | – | Medium |
| Jonah ColemanDEN · RB | Rushing yards | 44.5 | 31.5 | 31 / 31 | Under | 60% | – | – | Medium |
| Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3 / 3 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Rashee RiceKC · WR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 / 4.3 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Evan EngramDEN · TE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.9 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Jonah ColemanDEN · RB | Receiving yards | 20.5 | 14.9 | 11.3 / 11.3 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Cyrus AllenKC · WR | Receptions | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.8 | Over | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 1.00 TD | 1.2 / 1.3 | Yes | 65% | – | – | High |
| J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.52 TD | 0.6 / 0.4 | Yes | 41% | – | – | Medium |
Patriots @ Dolphins
· 4:25 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter HenryNE · TE | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4 / 3.7 | Under | 63% | – | – | High |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB | Rushing yards | 60.5 | 42.8 | 38.2 / 40.7 | Under | 60% | – | – | Medium |
| Efton Chism IIINE · WR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.7 | Under | 60% | – | – | Medium |
| Corey KinerNE · RB | Rushing yards | 35.5 | 25.4 | 28 / 21.6 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Efton Chism IIINE · WR | Receiving yards | 27.5 | 22.2 | 23.2 / 19 | Under | 58% | – | – | Medium |
| Malik WashingtonMIA · WR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 / 4.3 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Eli RaridonNE · TE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 / 2 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| Hunter HenryNE · TE | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 40.6 | 46 / 42.3 | Under | 57% | – | – | Medium |
| DeMario DouglasNE · WR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 / 3.3 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Jaylen WrightMIA · RB | Rushing yards | 15.5 | 13.8 | 7.2 / 7.2 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Ollie Gordon IIMIA · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.66 TD | 0.8 / 0.8 | Yes | 49% | – | – | Medium |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.49 TD | 0.6 / 0.4 | Yes | 40% | – | – | Medium |
Eagles @ Commanders
· 8:20 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyPHI · RB | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.2 | Under | 66% | – | – | High |
| Dallas GoedertPHI · TE | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 / 4.4 | Under | 65% | – | – | High |
| Darius CooperPHI · WR | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.3 | Under | 63% | – | – | High |
| Makai LemonPHI · WR | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 / 3.6 | Under | 62% | – | – | High |
| Elijah MitchellPHI · RB | Rushing yards | 28.5 | 14.9 | 11 / 11 | Under | 61% | – | – | Medium |
| Makai LemonPHI · WR | Receiving yards | 43.5 | 32.4 | 37 / 27.7 | Under | 60% | – | – | Medium |
| Antonio WilliamsWSH · WR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 / 3 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Rachaad WhiteWSH · RB | Rushing yards | 41.5 | 31.4 | 29 / 29 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Marquise BrownPHI · WR | Receiving yards | 21.5 | 18.5 | 15 / 15 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Saquon BarkleyPHI · RB | Rushing yards | 48.5 | 45.4 | 48.8 / 48.8 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Saquon BarkleyPHI · RB | Receiving yards | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.4 / 3.4 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Stefon DiggsWSH · WR | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.49 TD | 0.8 / 0.8 | Yes | 40% | – | – | Medium |
Bears @ Seahawks
· 8:15 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ BarnerSEA · TE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 / 2.7 | Under | 60% | – | – | Medium |
| Colston LovelandCHI · TE | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5 / 3.7 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 / 3.1 | Under | 59% | – | – | Medium |
| Colston LovelandCHI · TE | Receiving yards | 43.5 | 38.9 | 48.2 / 34.9 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR | Receptions | 7.5 | 7.2 | 8.2 / 8.3 | Under | 56% | – | – | Medium |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.80 TD | 0.8 / 1 | Yes | 57% | – | – | High |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.67 TD | 0.8 / 1.1 | Yes | 50% | – | – | High |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB | Anytime touchdown | 1+ | 0.65 TD | 0.8 / 0.6 | Yes | 49% | – | – | Medium |
Backtest: fitted on 2024 lines, scored on 2025 & 2026
| Market | Test props | Projection miss | Line miss | Log loss model / market | Confident picks won | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 596 | 57.95 | 54.66 | 0.702 / 0.693 | 48.9% (184) | -6.6% |
| Rushing yards | 1,719 | 19.90 | 18.22 | 0.694 / 0.693 | 54.6% (531) | +4.3% |
| Receiving yards | 3,369 | 21.58 | 20.29 | 0.693 / 0.693 | 55.1% (801) | +5.1% |
| Receptions | 3,330 | 1.59 | 1.54 | 0.691 / 0.693 | 57.0% (1673) | +8.9% |
| Anytime touchdown | 6,376 | past prices not kept by ESPN; scored against the base rate only | ||||
"Projection miss" and "line miss" are average absolute errors against what the player actually did; a smaller line miss means the bookmaker's number was closer. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. * Anytime TD is a one-sided market, so the market's log loss still includes its margin. ESPN does not keep the prices of settled NFL props, only the lines, so NFL returns assume the standard -110 on both sides.
Live props settled
0
medium/high picks frozen at tip-off
Live hit rate
–
Live return
–
per $1 at the frozen price