NFL prediction history · 2026
Live rows are predictions frozen at tip-off / kickoff and never edited. Backtest rows are games played before this app existed, predicted by models trained only on earlier seasons: out-of-sample, but not published in advance.
Games
107
1 live · 106 backtest
Winner picked
57.9%
market favourite 63.5%
Log loss
0.670
market 0.660 (n 107)
Margin error
9.9 pts
mean absolute error
Running average log loss (lower is better)
Results
| Date | Game | Home win (model) | Market | Margin pred / actual | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026live |  CAR 19@GB 27 | 62% | 63% | +4.0 / +8 | ✓ GB |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest |  DAL 38@PHI 21 | 56% | 34% | +1.9 / -17 | ✗ PHI |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  KC 3@SEA 20 | 62% | 59% | +4.1 / +17 | ✓ SEA |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  LAR 35@LV 21 | 42% | 38% | -2.7 / -14 | ✓ LAR |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | GB 17@DET 20 | 64% | 63% | +4.7 / +3 | ✓ DET |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  DEN 30@ARI 16 | 33% | 33% | -5.8 / -14 | ✓ DEN |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  MIA 28@NYJ 25 | 56% | 66% | +2.1 / -3 | ✗ NYJ |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  CIN 35@BAL 13 | 51% | 41% | +0.3 / -22 | ✗ BAL |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  IND 10@MIN 16 | 78% | 73% | +10.5 / +6 | ✓ MIN |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  CLE 27@TEN 24 | 47% | 46% | -1.0 / -3 | ✓ CLE |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  NYG 27@HOU 21 | 72% | 80% | +7.8 / -6 | ✗ HOU |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  SF 20@ATL 29 | 39% | 42% | -3.8 / +9 | ✗ SF |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  TB 43@CAR 13 | 72% | 60% | +7.9 / -30 | ✗ CAR |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest |  PIT 16@NO 10 | 42% | 41% | -2.6 / -6 | ✓ PIT |
| Oct 22, 2026backtest |  NE 24@CHI 30 | 48% | 58% | -0.7 / +6 | ✗ NE |
| Oct 19, 2026backtest |  WSH 17@SF 23 | 80% | 77% | +11.4 / +6 | ✓ SF |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | DAL 13@GB 23 | 57% | 49% | +2.5 / +10 | ✓ GB |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest |  LAC 6@KC 22 | 76% | 79% | +9.6 / +16 | ✓ KC |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest |  BUF 33@LV 30 | 36% | 33% | -4.9 / -3 | ✓ BUF |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | ARI 18@LAR 16 | 76% | 84% | +9.6 / -2 | ✗ LAR |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | NO 34@NYG 27 | 63% | 50% | +4.4 / -7 | ✗ NYG |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | CAR 25@PHI 14 | 46% | 41% | -1.4 / -11 | ✓ CAR |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | CHI 31@ATL 23 | 55% | 48% | +1.5 / -8 | ✗ ATL |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | BAL 10@CLE 13 | 45% | 40% | -1.7 / +3 | ✗ BAL |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | NYJ 19@NE 26 | 79% | 74% | +10.8 / +7 | ✓ NE |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | PIT 26@TB 19 | 45% | 44% | -1.8 / -7 | ✓ PIT |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | TEN 26@IND 20 | 72% | 72% | +7.8 / -6 | ✗ IND |
| Oct 18, 2026backtest | HOU 34@JAX 31 | 64% | 56% | +5.0 / -3 | ✗ JAX |
| Oct 15, 2026backtest | SEA 14@DEN 17 | 44% | 42% | -2.1 / +3 | ✗ SEA |
| Oct 12, 2026backtest | BUF 37@LAR 34 | 51% | 62% | +0.3 / -3 | ✗ LAR |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | BAL 30@ATL 23 | 54% | 61% | +1.4 / -7 | ✗ ATL |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | SF 32@SEA 29 | 62% | 60% | +4.0 / -3 | ✗ SEA |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | DET 45@ARI 21 | 39% | 30% | -3.8 / -24 | ✓ DET |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | DEN 23@LAC 17 | 42% | 37% | -2.7 / -6 | ✓ DEN |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | CHI 7@GB 31 | 43% | 47% | -2.2 / +24 | ✗ CHI |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | CIN 31@MIA 24 | 38% | 25% | -4.0 / -7 | ✓ CIN |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | CLE 12@NYJ 17 | 50% | 56% | 0.0 / +5 | ✗ CLE |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | HOU 26@TEN 3 | 36% | 27% | -4.9 / -23 | ✓ HOU |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | IND 22@PIT 34 | 57% | 59% | +2.4 / +12 | ✓ PIT |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | LV 17@NE 45 | 70% | 62% | +7.1 / +28 | ✓ NE |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | MIN 23@NO 13 | 41% | 44% | -3.1 / -10 | ✓ MIN |
| Oct 11, 2026backtest | PHI 17@JAX 19 | 71% | 76% | +7.5 / +2 | ✓ JAX |
| Oct 8, 2026backtest | TB 24@DAL 16 | 68% | 81% | +6.4 / -8 | ✗ DAL |
| Oct 5, 2026backtest | ATL 45@NO 24 | 60% | 52% | +3.4 / -21 | ✗ NO |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | DET 26@CAR 32 | 48% | 34% | -0.5 / +6 | ✗ DET |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | LAC 23@SEA 30 | 77% | 74% | +9.9 / +7 | ✓ SEA |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | KC 30@LV 27 | 54% | 34% | +1.3 / -3 | ✗ LV |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | DEN 14@SF 24 | 66% | 60% | +5.4 / +10 | ✓ SF |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | MIA 10@MIN 15 | 80% | 81% | +11.3 / +5 | ✓ MIN |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | ARI 24@NYG 36 | 55% | 45% | +1.6 / +12 | ✓ NYG |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | DAL 34@HOU 30 | 58% | 58% | +2.7 / -4 | ✗ HOU |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | GB 17@TB 14 | 47% | 42% | -0.9 / -3 | ✓ GB |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | JAX 22@CIN 17 | 46% | 57% | -1.3 / -5 | ✓ JAX |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | LAR 24@PHI 20 | 46% | 36% | -1.4 / -4 | ✓ LAR |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | TEN 18@BAL 24 | 78% | 85% | +10.1 / +6 | ✓ BAL |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | NE 29@BUF 26 | 65% | 74% | +5.1 / -3 | ✗ BUF |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | NYJ 12@CHI 23 | 74% | 63% | +8.5 / +11 | ✓ CHI |
| Oct 4, 2026backtest | IND 30@WSH 13 | 43% | 33% | -2.2 / -17 | ✓ IND |
| Oct 1, 2026backtest | PIT 24@CLE 27 | 51% | 43% | +0.4 / +3 | ✓ CLE |
| Sep 28, 2026backtest | PHI 7@CHI 27 | 56% | 36% | +2.0 / +20 | ✓ CHI |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | LAR 26@DEN 30 | 49% | 50% | -0.3 / +4 | ✗ LAR |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | LV 35@NO 27 | 67% | 63% | +5.8 / -8 | ✗ NO |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | BAL 34@DAL 31 | 44% | 40% | -1.9 / -3 | ✓ BAL |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | MIN 23@TB 16 | 51% | 50% | +0.3 / -7 | ✗ TB |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | ARI 30@SF 36 | 79% | 77% | +10.9 / +6 | ✓ SF |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | KC 24@MIA 10 | 41% | 18% | -3.0 / -14 | ✓ KC |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | CAR 18@CLE 21 | 42% | 45% | -2.7 / +3 | ✗ CAR |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | CIN 27@PIT 30 | 51% | 38% | +0.2 / +3 | ✓ PIT |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | HOU 17@IND 19 | 41% | 47% | -3.1 / +2 | ✗ HOU |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | NE 6@JAX 35 | 58% | 59% | +2.6 / +29 | ✓ JAX |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | LAC 16@BUF 24 | 77% | 73% | +9.9 / +8 | ✓ BUF |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | SEA 31@WSH 33 | 27% | 23% | -8.3 / +2 | ✗ SEA |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | TEN 7@NYG 12 | 60% | 54% | +3.4 / +5 | ✓ NYG |
| Sep 27, 2026backtest | NYJ 24@DET 31 | 69% | 73% | +6.6 / +7 | ✓ DET |
| Sep 24, 2026backtest | ATL 35@GB 14 | 68% | 67% | +6.2 / -21 | ✗ GB |
| Sep 21, 2026backtest | NYG 6@LAR 28 | 64% | 72% | +4.8 / +22 | ✓ LAR |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | IND 30@KC 33 | 66% | 70% | +5.6 / +3 | ✓ KC |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | WSH 20@DAL 37 | 58% | 66% | +2.6 / +17 | ✓ DAL |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | SEA 31@ARI 7 | 36% | 34% | -4.7 / -24 | ✓ SEA |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | MIA 13@SF 35 | 81% | 86% | +11.5 / +22 | ✓ SF |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | JAX 13@DEN 20 | 42% | 57% | -2.7 / +7 | ✗ JAX |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | LV 26@LAC 14 | 69% | 73% | +6.7 / -12 | ✗ LAC |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | PIT 3@NE 20 | 68% | 66% | +6.1 / +17 | ✓ NE |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | NO 24@BAL 17 | 70% | 76% | +7.1 / -7 | ✗ BAL |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | MIN 9@CHI 3 | 70% | 66% | +6.8 / -6 | ✗ CHI |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | GB 20@NYJ 17 | 41% | 38% | -3.2 / -3 | ✓ GB |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | CLE 23@TB 19 | 70% | 78% | +7.1 / -4 | ✗ TB |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | CIN 20@HOU 6 | 66% | 57% | +5.5 / -14 | ✗ HOU |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | CAR 34@ATL 3 | 56% | 42% | +2.2 / -31 | ✗ ATL |
| Sep 20, 2026backtest | PHI 24@TEN 20 | 38% | 27% | -3.9 / -4 | ✓ PHI |
| Sep 17, 2026backtest | DET 31@BUF 41 | 65% | 68% | +5.3 / +10 | ✓ BUF |
| Sep 14, 2026backtest | DEN 10@KC 31 | 40% | 54% | -3.6 / +21 | ✗ DEN |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | DAL 20@NYG 28 | 54% | 40% | +1.5 / +8 | ✓ NYG |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | GB 22@MIN 39 | 52% | 53% | +0.5 / +17 | ✓ MIN |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | ARI 26@LAC 14 | 65% | 79% | +5.2 / -12 | ✗ LAC |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | MIA 13@LV 27 | 47% | 60% | -1.0 / +14 | ✗ MIA |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | WSH 22@PHI 24 | 68% | 68% | +6.2 / +2 | ✓ PHI |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | TB 27@CIN 33 | 56% | 64% | +1.9 / +6 | ✓ CIN |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | NYJ 23@TEN 10 | 62% | 52% | +4.2 / -13 | ✗ TEN |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | NO 30@DET 31 | 64% | 73% | +4.7 / +1 | ✓ DET |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | CLE 10@JAX 34 | 77% | 79% | +9.8 / +24 | ✓ JAX |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | CHI 59@CAR 37 | 46% | 40% | -1.4 / -22 | ✓ CHI |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | BUF 36@HOU 31 | 54% | 50% | +1.4 / -5 | ✗ HOU |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | BAL 41@IND 23 | 43% | 41% | -2.4 / -18 | ✓ BAL |
| Sep 13, 2026backtest | ATL 13@PIT 20 | 60% | 72% | +3.5 / +7 | ✓ PIT |
| Sep 10, 2026backtest | SF 27@LAR 7 | 54% | 66% | +1.2 / -20 | ✗ LAR |
| Sep 9, 2026backtest | NE 10@SEA 13 | 63% | 60% | +4.3 / +3 | ✓ SEA |
Margins are from the home team's point of view.