Week 10 · · MetLife Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
New York Giants' higher Elo rating (1477 vs 1414) and New York Giants' recent point differential (+2.8 vs -5.2 per game over the last 4) drive most of this prediction towards New York Giants.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NYG win probability | 63% | – |
| Spread | NYG -4.5 | – |
| Total points | 46.0 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| WSH | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4-1 | 4-2-1 |
| Conference rank | 16 | 5 |
| Last 10 | 1-4-1 | 4-2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 22.0 | 23.3 |
| Points against / game | 28.7 | 23.0 |
| Average margin | -6.7 | 0.3 |
NYG at home · WSH on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NYG at home | 3-1 · 25.8–21.2 | 3-5 |
| WSH away | 0-3 · 19.7–28.0 | 3-6 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- TOct 11, 2026NYG 27 @ WSH 27
- LDec 14, 2025WSH 29 @ NYG 21
- LSep 7, 2025NYG 6 @ WSH 21
- LNov 3, 2024WSH 27 @ NYG 22
- LSep 15, 2024NYG 18 @ WSH 21
- WNov 19, 2023NYG 31 @ WSH 19
- WOct 22, 2023WSH 7 @ NYG 14
- WDec 18, 2022NYG 20 @ WSH 12
- TDec 4, 2022WSH 20 @ NYG 20
- LJan 9, 2022WSH 22 @ NYG 7
W/L from New York Giants's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+6 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Season record-0 pts
Change in NYG's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)NYG 66%
- Margin model (weight 75%)NYG 63%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NYG 62%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.