Data last updated Season 2026Model v20261029-e80118
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Week 9 · · Soldier Field

Buccaneers
Away · 2-5
QB Baker Mayfield
Projected
18 – 25
Bears
Home · 5-2
QB Caleb Williams
31% TB win69% CHI win
Predicted winner
Chicago Bears
Medium confidence

Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.

Why

Chicago Bears' higher Elo rating (1572 vs 1474) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting a different quarterback than usual drive most of this prediction towards Chicago Bears. Tampa Bay Buccaneers' better point margin this season (+1.6 vs +5.3 per game) pulls the other way.

Model vs betting line

ModelMarket
CHI win probability69%70%
SpreadCHI -6.6CHI -6.0
Total points43.047.5
MoneylineCHI -270 · TB +220

Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap -1 pts on CHI winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.

Recent form (last 5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
L16–23v MIN
L14–17v GB
W24–16@ DAL
L19–26v PIT
W43–13@ CAR
Chicago Bears
W27–7v PHI
W23–12v NYJ
L7–31@ GB
W31–23@ ATL
W30–24v NE

Season so far

TBCHI
Record2-55-2
Conference rank123
Last 102-55-2
StreakW1W2
Points for / game23.125.7
Points against / game21.620.4
Average margin1.65.3

CHI at home · TB on the road

This seasonLast season
CHI at home3-1 · 20.8–13.07-3
TB away2-1 · 31.3–20.74-5

W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.

Rest · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14.3 days
Last played Carolina Panthers, Oct 25, 2026
Rest · Chicago Bears
17.0 days
Last played New England Patriots, Oct 22, 2026

Head to head (last 10)

5 CHI wins5 TB wins
  • LSep 17, 2023CHI 17 @ TB 27
  • LOct 24, 2021CHI 3 @ TB 38
  • WOct 8, 2020TB 19 @ CHI 20
  • WSep 30, 2018TB 10 @ CHI 48
  • LSep 17, 2017CHI 7 @ TB 29
  • LNov 13, 2016CHI 10 @ TB 36
  • WDec 27, 2015CHI 26 @ TB 21
  • WNov 23, 2014TB 13 @ CHI 21
  • WOct 23, 2011CHI 24 @ TB 18
  • LSep 21, 2008TB 27 @ CHI 24

W/L from Chicago Bears's point of view.

What moves this prediction

← favours TBfavours CHI →
  • Elo strength rating+9 pts
  • Quarterback change+4 pts
  • Season record-1 pts
  • Points scored / allowed+1 pts

Change in CHI's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.

  • Elo (weight 10%)CHI 71%
  • Margin model (weight 75%)CHI 69%
  • Gradient boosting (weight 15%)CHI 69%

Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.