Week 9 · · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
Kansas City Chiefs' higher Elo rating (1555 vs 1388) and Kansas City Chiefs' recent point differential (+4.0 vs -4.0 per game over the last 4) drive most of this prediction towards Kansas City Chiefs.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| KC win probability | 75% | 80% |
| Spread | KC -9.2 | KC -9.5 |
| Total points | 41.0 | 43.5 |
| Moneyline | KC -485 · NYJ +370 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap -4 pts on KC winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| NYJ | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 5-1 |
| Conference rank | 12 | 1 |
| Last 10 | 2-5 | 5-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 19.6 | 23.8 |
| Points against / game | 21.4 | 17.2 |
| Average margin | -1.9 | 6.7 |
KC at home · NYJ on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| KC at home | 3-0 · 28.7–15.3 | 5-4 |
| NYJ away | 1-3 · 19.5–22.5 | 1-7 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WOct 1, 2023KC 23 @ NYJ 20
- WNov 1, 2020NYJ 9 @ KC 35
- LDec 3, 2017KC 31 @ NYJ 38
- WSep 25, 2016NYJ 3 @ KC 24
- WNov 2, 2014NYJ 10 @ KC 24
- LDec 11, 2011KC 10 @ NYJ 37
- LOct 26, 2008KC 24 @ NYJ 28
- LDec 30, 2007KC 10 @ NYJ 13
- WSep 11, 2005NYJ 7 @ KC 27
- WOct 6, 2002KC 29 @ NYJ 25
W/L from Kansas City Chiefs's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+16 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in KC's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)KC 79%
- Margin model (weight 75%)KC 74%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)KC 79%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.