Week 9 · · Lincoln Financial Field
Low: close to a coin flip.
New York Giants starting a different quarterback than usual drives most of this prediction towards Philadelphia Eagles. New York Giants' higher Elo rating (1477 vs 1431) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| PHI win probability | 51% | 47% |
| Spread | PHI -0.5 | NYG -1.5 |
| Total points | 40.6 | 40.5 |
| Moneyline | PHI +102 · NYG -122 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.5% removed. Gap +4 pts on PHI winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| NYG | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2-1 | 2-5 |
| Conference rank | 5 | 14 |
| Last 10 | 4-2-1 | 2-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Points for / game | 23.3 | 18.1 |
| Points against / game | 23.0 | 25.0 |
| Average margin | 0.3 | -6.9 |
PHI at home · NYG on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| PHI at home | 1-3 · 19.8–27.2 | 5-4 |
| NYG away | 1-1-1 · 20.0–25.3 | 1-8 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WOct 26, 2025NYG 20 @ PHI 38
- LOct 9, 2025PHI 17 @ NYG 34
- WJan 5, 2025NYG 13 @ PHI 20
- WOct 20, 2024PHI 28 @ NYG 3
- LJan 7, 2024PHI 10 @ NYG 27
- WDec 25, 2023NYG 25 @ PHI 33
- WJan 21, 2023NYG 7 @ PHI 38playoffs
- WJan 8, 2023NYG 16 @ PHI 22
- WDec 11, 2022PHI 48 @ NYG 22
- WDec 26, 2021NYG 10 @ PHI 34
W/L from Philadelphia Eagles's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-5 pts
- Quarterback change+4 pts
- Recent point differential-2 pts
- Points scored / allowed-1 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs-1 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
Change in PHI's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)PHI 50%
- Margin model (weight 75%)PHI 52%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)PHI 47%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.