Week 9 · · Levi's Stadium
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
San Francisco 49ers' higher Elo rating (1608 vs 1421) and San Francisco 49ers' home form (+5.6 average margin at home) drive most of this prediction towards San Francisco 49ers.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| SF win probability | 76% | 81% |
| Spread | SF -9.5 | SF -10.0 |
| Total points | 46.0 | 48.5 |
| Moneyline | SF -550 · LV +410 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap -5 pts on SF winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| LV | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 6-1 |
| Conference rank | 10 | 2 |
| Last 10 | 3-4 | 6-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 26.1 | 28.1 |
| Points against / game | 28.1 | 19.9 |
| Average margin | -2.0 | 8.3 |
SF at home · LV on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| SF at home | 4-0 · 29.5–18.5 | 5-3 |
| LV away | 2-1 · 26.0–28.7 | 1-7 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 7)
- WJan 1, 2023SF 37 @ LV 34
- WNov 1, 2018LV 3 @ SF 34
- LDec 7, 2014SF 13 @ LV 24
- WOct 17, 2010LV 9 @ SF 17
- WOct 8, 2006LV 20 @ SF 34
- WNov 3, 2002SF 23 @ LV 20
- LOct 8, 2000LV 34 @ SF 28
W/L from San Francisco 49ers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+17 pts
- Home / road form+2 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
Change in SF's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)SF 81%
- Margin model (weight 75%)SF 75%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)SF 79%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.