Week 9 · · Northwest Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Los Angeles Rams' higher Elo rating (1555 vs 1414) and Los Angeles Rams' road form (+3.7 average margin away) drive most of this prediction towards Los Angeles Rams.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| WSH win probability | 36% | 34% |
| Spread | LAR -5.0 | LAR -5.5 |
| Total points | 47.7 | 48.5 |
| Moneyline | WSH +185 · LAR -225 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +2 pts on WSH winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| LAR | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 1-4-1 |
| Conference rank | 8 | 16 |
| Last 10 | 3-4 | 1-4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 24.3 | 22.0 |
| Points against / game | 22.7 | 28.7 |
| Average margin | 1.6 | -6.7 |
WSH at home · LAR on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| WSH at home | 1-1-1 · 24.3–29.3 | 2-6 |
| LAR away | 2-1 · 28.3–23.7 | 7-5 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LDec 17, 2023WSH 20 @ LAR 28
- LOct 11, 2020LAR 30 @ WSH 10
- WSep 17, 2017WSH 27 @ LAR 20
- WSep 20, 2015LAR 10 @ WSH 24
- LDec 7, 2014LAR 24 @ WSH 0
- LSep 16, 2012WSH 28 @ LAR 31
- WOct 2, 2011WSH 17 @ LAR 10
- LSep 26, 2010WSH 16 @ LAR 30
- WSep 20, 2009LAR 7 @ WSH 9
- LOct 12, 2008LAR 19 @ WSH 17
W/L from Washington Commanders's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-14 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
Change in WSH's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)WSH 36%
- Margin model (weight 75%)WSH 36%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)WSH 35%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.