Data last updated Season 2026Model v20261029-e80118
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Week 9 · · M&T Bank Stadium

Jaguars
Away · 4-2
QB Trevor Lawrence
Projected
25 – 20
Ravens
Home · 4-3
QB Lamar Jackson
65% JAX win35% BAL win
Predicted winner
Jacksonville Jaguars
Medium confidence

Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.

Why

Jacksonville Jaguars' higher Elo rating (1592 vs 1506) and Baltimore Ravens starting a different quarterback than usual drive most of this prediction towards Jacksonville Jaguars.

Model vs betting line

Model vs market
ModelMarket
BAL win probability35%58%
SpreadJAX -5.0BAL -3.0
Total points45.748.5
MoneylineBAL -155 · JAX +130

Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -23 pts on BAL winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.

Recent form (last 5)

Jacksonville Jaguars
L13–20@ DEN
W35–6v NE
W22–17@ CIN
W19–17v PHI
L31–34v HOU
Baltimore Ravens
W34–31@ DAL
W24–18v TEN
W30–23@ ATL
L10–13@ CLE
L13–35v CIN

Season so far

JAXBAL
Record4-24-3
Conference rank69
Last 104-24-3
StreakL1L2
Points for / game25.724.1
Points against / game17.323.9
Average margin8.30.3

BAL at home · JAX on the road

This seasonLast season
BAL at home1-2 · 18.0–25.73-6
JAX away1-1 · 17.5–18.56-2

W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.

Rest · Jacksonville Jaguars
18.5 days
Last played Houston Texans, Oct 18, 2026
Rest · Baltimore Ravens
11.3 days
Last played Cincinnati Bengals, Oct 25, 2026

Head to head (last 10)

5 BAL wins5 JAX wins
  • WDec 17, 2023BAL 23 @ JAX 7
  • LNov 27, 2022BAL 27 @ JAX 28
  • WDec 20, 2020JAX 14 @ BAL 40
  • LSep 24, 2017BAL 7 @ JAX 44
  • WSep 25, 2016BAL 19 @ JAX 17
  • LNov 15, 2015JAX 22 @ BAL 20
  • WDec 14, 2014JAX 12 @ BAL 20
  • LOct 24, 2011BAL 7 @ JAX 12
  • WDec 28, 2008JAX 7 @ BAL 27
  • LNov 13, 2005BAL 3 @ JAX 30

W/L from Baltimore Ravens's point of view.

What moves this prediction

← favours JAXfavours BAL →
  • Elo strength rating-9 pts
  • Quarterback change-5 pts
  • Recent point differential-2 pts
  • Home / road form-1 pts
  • Season record-1 pts
  • Rest & back-to-backs-1 pts

Change in BAL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.

  • Elo (weight 10%)BAL 44%
  • Margin model (weight 75%)BAL 35%
  • Gradient boosting (weight 15%)BAL 32%

Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.