Week 9 · · SoFi Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Houston Texans' higher Elo rating (1499 vs 1402) and Houston Texans' recent scoring (24.9–23.4 points per game vs 14.6–22.3) drive most of this prediction towards Houston Texans.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC win probability | 37% | 38% |
| Spread | HOU -4.4 | HOU -3.5 |
| Total points | 42.3 | 42.5 |
| Moneyline | LAC +154 · HOU -185 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -1 pts on LAC winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| HOU | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 0-6 |
| Conference rank | 11 | 16 |
| Last 10 | 2-5 | 0-6 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Points for / game | 23.6 | 15.0 |
| Points against / game | 24.3 | 25.2 |
| Average margin | -0.7 | -10.2 |
LAC at home · HOU on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC at home | 0-3 · 15.0–25.0 | 6-3 |
| HOU away | 2-1 · 25.7–17.7 | 6-4 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LDec 27, 2025HOU 20 @ LAC 16
- LJan 11, 2025LAC 12 @ HOU 32playoffs
- WOct 2, 2022LAC 34 @ HOU 24
- LDec 26, 2021LAC 29 @ HOU 41
- LSep 22, 2019HOU 27 @ LAC 20
- WNov 27, 2016LAC 21 @ HOU 13
- LSep 9, 2013HOU 31 @ LAC 28
- WNov 7, 2010LAC 29 @ HOU 23
- WOct 28, 2007HOU 10 @ LAC 35
- WSep 12, 2004LAC 27 @ HOU 20
W/L from Los Angeles Chargers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-10 pts
- Points scored / allowed-3 pts
- Home / road form-2 pts
- Recent point differential-2 pts
- Season record-1 pts
Change in LAC's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)LAC 42%
- Margin model (weight 75%)LAC 36%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)LAC 36%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.