Week 9 · · Gillette Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
New England Patriots' higher Elo rating (1580 vs 1532) and New England Patriots having more rest (14.0 vs 9.9 days) drive most of this prediction towards New England Patriots.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NE win probability | 66% | 58% |
| Spread | NE -5.6 | NE -3.0 |
| Total points | 41.9 | 47.5 |
| Moneyline | NE -155 · GB +130 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +8 pts on NE winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| GB | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Conference rank | 6 | 8 |
| Last 10 | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 21.4 | 22.9 |
| Points against / game | 20.5 | 20.4 |
| Average margin | 0.9 | 2.4 |
NE at home · GB on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NE at home | 3-0 · 30.3–13.0 | 8-4 |
| GB away | 2-2 · 19.0–22.5 | 4-5-1 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 6)
- LOct 2, 2022NE 24 @ GB 27
- WNov 4, 2018GB 17 @ NE 31
- LNov 30, 2014NE 21 @ GB 26
- WDec 19, 2010GB 27 @ NE 31
- WNov 19, 2006NE 35 @ GB 0
- LOct 13, 2002GB 28 @ NE 10
W/L from New England Patriots's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+5 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+2 pts
- Points scored / allowed+1 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
Change in NE's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)NE 64%
- Margin model (weight 75%)NE 66%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NE 67%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.