Week 9 · · Hard Rock Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Detroit Lions' higher Elo rating (1546 vs 1394) and Detroit Lions' recent scoring (27.1–27.4 points per game vs 16.4–28.5) drive most of this prediction towards Detroit Lions.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| MIA win probability | 32% | 23% |
| Spread | DET -6.1 | DET -7.0 |
| Total points | 46.7 | 48.5 |
| Moneyline | MIA +310 · DET -395 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap +9 pts on MIA winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| DET | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 1-5 |
| Conference rank | 4 | 14 |
| Last 10 | 4-2 | 1-5 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 30.7 | 16.3 |
| Points against / game | 27.5 | 26.2 |
| Average margin | 3.2 | -9.8 |
MIA at home · DET on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| MIA at home | 0-2 · 17.0–27.5 | 5-4 |
| DET away | 1-2 · 34.0–31.3 | 4-5 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 7)
- WOct 30, 2022MIA 31 @ DET 27
- LOct 21, 2018DET 32 @ MIA 21
- LNov 9, 2014MIA 16 @ DET 20
- LDec 26, 2010DET 34 @ MIA 27
- WNov 23, 2006MIA 27 @ DET 10
- WSep 8, 2002DET 21 @ MIA 49
- WNov 5, 2000MIA 23 @ DET 8
W/L from Miami Dolphins's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-16 pts
- Points scored / allowed-2 pts
- Recent point differential-2 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Season record-0 pts
Change in MIA's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)MIA 34%
- Margin model (weight 75%)MIA 33%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MIA 30%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.