Week 9 · · Bank of America Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Denver Broncos' higher Elo rating (1600 vs 1444) and Denver Broncos having more rest (13.9 vs 9.7 days) drive most of this prediction towards Denver Broncos. Carolina Panthers' recent scoring (23.3–27.0 points per game vs 20.3–18.4) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| CAR win probability | 37% | 44% |
| Spread | DEN -4.4 | DEN -2.5 |
| Total points | 44.8 | 44.5 |
| Moneyline | CAR +120 · DEN -142 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.1% removed. Gap -7 pts on CAR winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| DEN | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Conference rank | 4 | 11 |
| Last 10 | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Streak | W3 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 20.6 | 25.4 |
| Points against / game | 20.1 | 27.6 |
| Average margin | 0.4 | -2.1 |
CAR at home · DEN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| CAR at home | 1-2 · 27.3–42.7 | 5-4 |
| DEN away | 2-2 · 19.2–22.0 | 6-2 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 8)
- LOct 27, 2024CAR 14 @ DEN 28
- WNov 27, 2022DEN 10 @ CAR 23
- LDec 13, 2020DEN 32 @ CAR 27
- LSep 8, 2016CAR 20 @ DEN 21
- LFeb 7, 2016CAR 10 @ DEN 24playoffs
- LNov 11, 2012DEN 36 @ CAR 14
- WDec 14, 2008DEN 10 @ CAR 30
- LOct 10, 2004CAR 17 @ DEN 20
W/L from Carolina Panthers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-17 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs-2 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+1 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
Change in CAR's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)CAR 34%
- Margin model (weight 75%)CAR 38%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)CAR 32%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.