Week 9 · · Lucas Oil Stadium
CowboysDallas Cowboys
Away · 3-4
QB Dak Prescott
Projected
25 – 24
ColtsIndianapolis Colts
Home · 2-5
QB Daniel Jones
52%
48%
52% DAL win48% IND win
Predicted winner
Dallas Cowboys
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
Dallas Cowboys' higher Elo rating (1470 vs 1422) drives most of this prediction towards Dallas Cowboys.
Model vs betting line
Model vs market| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| IND win probability | 48% | 34% |
| Spread | DAL -0.8 | DAL -4.5 |
| Total points | 49.0 | 51.5 |
| Moneyline | IND +185 · DAL -225 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +14 pts on IND winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Dallas Cowboys
L31–34v BAL
W34–30@ HOU
L16–24v TB
L13–23@ GB
W38–21@ PHI
Indianapolis Colts
W19–17v HOU
W30–13@ WSH
L22–34@ PIT
L20–26v TEN
L10–16@ MIN
Season so far
| DAL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Conference rank | 9 | 13 |
| Last 10 | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Points for / game | 27.0 | 22.0 |
| Points against / game | 25.7 | 25.7 |
| Average margin | 1.3 | -3.7 |
IND at home · DAL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| IND at home | 1-2 · 20.7–28.0 | 6-3 |
| DAL away | 2-2 · 26.2–25.5 | 3-6 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Dallas Cowboys
12.7 days
Last played Philadelphia Eagles, Oct 26, 2026
Rest · Indianapolis Colts
14.0 days
Last played Minnesota Vikings, Oct 25, 2026
Head to head (last 7)
3 IND wins4 DAL wins
- LDec 4, 2022IND 19 @ DAL 54
- WDec 16, 2018DAL 0 @ IND 23
- LDec 21, 2014IND 7 @ DAL 42
- LDec 5, 2010DAL 38 @ IND 35
- LNov 19, 2006IND 14 @ DAL 21
- WNov 17, 2002DAL 3 @ IND 20
- WOct 31, 1999DAL 24 @ IND 34
W/L from Indianapolis Colts's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours DALfavours IND →
- Elo strength rating-5 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
- Season record-0 pts
Change in IND's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)IND 50%
- Margin model (weight 75%)IND 48%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)IND 46%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.