Week 9 · · Caesars Superdome
Low: close to a coin flip.
New Orleans Saints' recent scoring (24.2–24.5 points per game vs 18.6–19.3) and New Orleans Saints' better point margin this season (-4.6 vs -1.9 per game) drive most of this prediction towards New Orleans Saints. Cleveland Browns' higher Elo rating (1482 vs 1425) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NO win probability | 53% | 55% |
| Spread | NO -1.1 | NO -2.5 |
| Total points | 43.3 | 43.5 |
| Moneyline | NO -135 · CLE +114 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap -2 pts on NO winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| CLE | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 2-5 |
| Conference rank | 5 | 13 |
| Last 10 | 5-2 | 2-5 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 19.0 | 23.1 |
| Points against / game | 20.9 | 27.7 |
| Average margin | -1.9 | -4.6 |
NO at home · CLE on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NO at home | 0-4 · 18.5–29.8 | 3-5 |
| CLE away | 2-2 · 18.0–23.5 | 2-6 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 8)
- WNov 17, 2024CLE 14 @ NO 35
- WDec 24, 2022NO 17 @ CLE 10
- WSep 16, 2018CLE 18 @ NO 21
- LSep 14, 2014NO 24 @ CLE 26
- LOct 24, 2010CLE 30 @ NO 17
- WSep 10, 2006NO 19 @ CLE 14
- LNov 24, 2002CLE 24 @ NO 15
- LOct 31, 1999CLE 21 @ NO 16
W/L from New Orleans Saints's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-6 pts
- Points scored / allowed+2 pts
- Season record+2 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
Change in NO's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)NO 48%
- Margin model (weight 75%)NO 54%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NO 51%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.