Week 9 · · Bernabeu (neutral site)
Low: close to a coin flip.
Cincinnati Bengals' higher Elo rating (1557 vs 1493) and Cincinnati Bengals' road form (+2.1 average margin away) drive most of this prediction towards Cincinnati Bengals.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| ATL win probability | 40% | 40% |
| Spread | CIN -3.3 | CIN -3.0 |
| Total points | 46.3 | 49.5 |
| Moneyline | ATL +142 · CIN -170 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +1 pts on ATL winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| CIN | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Conference rank | 7 | 10 |
| Last 10 | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 27.2 | 24.4 |
| Points against / game | 20.3 | 24.7 |
| Average margin | 6.8 | -0.3 |
ATL at home · CIN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| ATL at home | 1-3 · 19.5–28.8 | 4-4 |
| CIN away | 3-1 · 28.2–18.2 | 3-5 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 6)
- LOct 23, 2022ATL 17 @ CIN 35
- LSep 30, 2018CIN 37 @ ATL 36
- LSep 14, 2014ATL 10 @ CIN 24
- WOct 24, 2010CIN 32 @ ATL 39
- WOct 29, 2006ATL 29 @ CIN 27
- WSep 22, 2002CIN 3 @ ATL 30
W/L from Atlanta Falcons's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-7 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
Change in ATL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)ATL 38%
- Margin model (weight 75%)ATL 40%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)ATL 44%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.