Week 9 · · U.S. Bank Stadium
BillsBuffalo Bills
Away · 5-1
QB Josh Allen
Projected
22 – 24
VikingsMinnesota Vikings
Home · 6-0
QB Kyler Murray
44%
56%
44% BUF win56% MIN win
Predicted winner
Minnesota Vikings
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage tips it towards Minnesota Vikings.
Model vs betting line
Model vs market| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| MIN win probability | 56% | 44% |
| Spread | MIN -2.1 | BUF -2.5 |
| Total points | 45.1 | 47.5 |
| Moneyline | MIN +120 · BUF -142 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.1% removed. Gap +13 pts on MIN winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Buffalo Bills
W41–31v DET
W24–16v LAC
L26–29v NE
W37–34@ LAR
W33–30@ LV
Minnesota Vikings
W9–3@ CHI
W23–16@ TB
W15–10v MIA
W23–13@ NO
W16–10v IND
Season so far
| BUF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 6-0 |
| Conference rank | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 | 5-1 | 6-0 |
| Streak | W2 | W6 |
| Points for / game | 32.8 | 20.8 |
| Points against / game | 28.5 | 12.3 |
| Average margin | 4.3 | 8.5 |
MIN at home · BUF on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| MIN at home | 3-0 · 23.3–14.0 | 4-4 |
| BUF away | 3-0 · 35.3–31.7 | 6-4 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Buffalo Bills
22.2 days
Last played Las Vegas Raiders, Oct 18, 2026
Rest · Minnesota Vikings
15.3 days
Last played Indianapolis Colts, Oct 25, 2026
Head to head (last 7)
3 MIN wins4 BUF wins
- WNov 13, 2022MIN 33 @ BUF 30
- LSep 23, 2018BUF 27 @ MIN 6
- LOct 19, 2014MIN 16 @ BUF 17
- WDec 5, 2010BUF 14 @ MIN 38
- LOct 1, 2006MIN 12 @ BUF 17
- LSep 15, 2002BUF 45 @ MIN 39
- WOct 22, 2000BUF 27 @ MIN 31
W/L from Minnesota Vikings's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours BUFfavours MIN →
- Points scored / allowed-2 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
Change in MIN's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)MIN 57%
- Margin model (weight 75%)MIN 55%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MIN 62%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.