Week 9 · · Lumen Field
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
Seattle Seahawks' higher Elo rating (1637 vs 1388) and Seattle Seahawks' recent point differential (+4.5 vs -12.0 per game over the last 4) drive most of this prediction towards Seattle Seahawks. Seattle Seahawks starting a different quarterback than usual pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| SEA win probability | 79% | 83% |
| Spread | SEA -10.9 | SEA -10.5 |
| Total points | 44.1 | 44.5 |
| Moneyline | SEA -625 · ARI +455 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap -4 pts on SEA winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| ARI | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Conference rank | 15 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 20.3 | 24.0 |
| Points against / game | 29.7 | 17.9 |
| Average margin | -9.4 | 6.1 |
SEA at home · ARI on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| SEA at home | 3-1 · 23.0–17.0 | 8-2 |
| ARI away | 2-2 · 24.5–25.5 | 2-7 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WSep 20, 2026SEA 31 @ ARI 7
- WNov 9, 2025ARI 22 @ SEA 44
- WSep 25, 2025SEA 23 @ ARI 20
- WDec 8, 2024SEA 30 @ ARI 18
- WNov 24, 2024ARI 6 @ SEA 16
- WJan 7, 2024SEA 21 @ ARI 20
- WOct 22, 2023ARI 10 @ SEA 20
- WNov 6, 2022SEA 31 @ ARI 21
- WOct 16, 2022ARI 9 @ SEA 19
- WJan 9, 2022SEA 38 @ ARI 30
W/L from Seattle Seahawks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+22 pts
- Quarterback change-4 pts
- Recent point differential+3 pts
- Season record+2 pts
- Points scored / allowed+2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
Change in SEA's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)SEA 86%
- Margin model (weight 75%)SEA 78%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)SEA 79%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.