Week 8 · · Paycor Stadium
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
Cincinnati Bengals' higher Elo rating (1557 vs 1343) and Cincinnati Bengals' recent scoring (26.3–20.1 points per game vs 16.7–24.0) drive most of this prediction towards Cincinnati Bengals.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| CIN win probability | 82% | 84% |
| Spread | CIN -12.1 | CIN -12.5 |
| Total points | 45.5 | 46.5 |
| Moneyline | CIN -700 · TEN +500 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap -2 pts on CIN winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| TEN | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-6 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 15 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 1-6 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 15.4 | 27.2 |
| Points against / game | 22.3 | 20.3 |
| Average margin | -6.9 | 6.8 |
CIN at home · TEN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| CIN at home | 1-1 · 25.0–24.5 | 3-6 |
| TEN away | 1-2 · 17.0–18.7 | 2-6 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WDec 15, 2024CIN 37 @ TEN 27
- LOct 1, 2023CIN 3 @ TEN 27
- WNov 27, 2022CIN 20 @ TEN 16
- WJan 22, 2022CIN 19 @ TEN 16playoffs
- WNov 1, 2020TEN 20 @ CIN 31
- LNov 12, 2017CIN 20 @ TEN 24
- WSep 21, 2014TEN 7 @ CIN 33
- WNov 6, 2011CIN 24 @ TEN 17
- LSep 14, 2008TEN 24 @ CIN 7
- WNov 25, 2007TEN 6 @ CIN 35
W/L from Cincinnati Bengals's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+18 pts
- Points scored / allowed+2 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Season record+0 pts
Change in CIN's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)CIN 83%
- Margin model (weight 75%)CIN 81%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)CIN 83%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.