Week 8 · · Northwest Stadium
Low: close to a coin flip.
Washington Commanders having more rest (13.0 vs 6.0 days) and Washington Commanders' recent scoring (22.6–26.9 points per game vs 17.6–23.4) drive most of this prediction towards Washington Commanders. Philadelphia Eagles' higher Elo rating (1431 vs 1414) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
Model vs market| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| WSH win probability | 58% | 69% |
| Spread | WSH -2.6 | WSH -6.0 |
| Total points | 45.1 | 40.5 |
| Moneyline | WSH -258 · PHI +210 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -11 pts on WSH winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| PHI | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 1-4-1 |
| Conference rank | 14 | 16 |
| Last 10 | 2-5 | 1-4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 18.1 | 22.0 |
| Points against / game | 25.0 | 28.7 |
| Average margin | -6.9 | -6.7 |
WSH at home · PHI on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| WSH at home | 1-1-1 · 24.3–29.3 | 2-6 |
| PHI away | 1-2 · 16.0–22.0 | 6-3 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LSep 13, 2026WSH 22 @ PHI 24
- WJan 4, 2026WSH 24 @ PHI 17
- LDec 20, 2025PHI 29 @ WSH 18
- LJan 26, 2025WSH 23 @ PHI 55playoffs
- WDec 22, 2024PHI 33 @ WSH 36
- LNov 14, 2024WSH 18 @ PHI 26
- LOct 29, 2023PHI 38 @ WSH 31
- LOct 1, 2023WSH 31 @ PHI 34
- WNov 14, 2022WSH 32 @ PHI 21
- LSep 25, 2022PHI 24 @ WSH 8
W/L from Washington Commanders's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Rest & back-to-backs+3 pts
- Elo strength rating-2 pts
- Points scored / allowed+1 pts
- Recent point differential+0 pts
- Home / road form-0 pts
- Season record+0 pts
Change in WSH's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)WSH 54%
- Margin model (weight 75%)WSH 58%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)WSH 57%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.