Patriots @ Dolphins

New England Patriots' higher Elo rating (1580 vs 1394) and New England Patriots' recent point differential (+8.0 vs -5.8 per game over the last 4) drive most of this prediction towards New England Patriots.

Model vs betting line

	Model	Market
MIA win probability	31%	26%
Spread	NE -6.7	NE -7.0
Total points	43.1	43.5
Moneyline		MIA +270 · NE -340

Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +5 pts on MIA winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.

Recent form (last 5)

New England Patriots

L6–35@ JAX

W29–26@ BUF

W45–17v LV

W26–19v NYJ

L24–30@ CHI

Miami Dolphins

L13–35@ SF

L10–24v KC

L10–15@ MIN

L24–31v CIN

W28–25@ NYJ

Season so far

	NE	MIA
Record	4-3	1-5
Conference rank	8	14
Last 10	4-3	1-5
Streak	L1	W1
Points for / game	22.9	16.3
Points against / game	20.4	26.2
Average margin	2.4	-9.8

MIA at home · NE on the road

	This season	Last season
MIA at home	0-2 · 17.0–27.5	5-4
NE away	1-3 · 17.2–26.0	9-0

W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.

Rest · New England Patriots

9.9 days

Last played Chicago Bears, Oct 22, 2026

Rest · Miami Dolphins

7.2 days

Last played New York Jets, Oct 25, 2026

Head to head (last 10)

7 MIA wins3 NE wins

LJan 4, 2026MIA 10 @ NE 38
LSep 14, 2025NE 33 @ MIA 27
WNov 24, 2024NE 15 @ MIA 34
WOct 6, 2024MIA 15 @ NE 10
WOct 29, 2023NE 17 @ MIA 31
WSep 17, 2023MIA 24 @ NE 17
LJan 1, 2023MIA 21 @ NE 23
WSep 11, 2022NE 7 @ MIA 20
WJan 9, 2022NE 24 @ MIA 33
WSep 12, 2021MIA 17 @ NE 16

W/L from Miami Dolphins's point of view.

What moves this prediction

← favours NEfavours MIA →

Elo strength rating-18 pts
Recent point differential-2 pts
Points scored / allowed-1 pts
Home / road form-1 pts
Rest & back-to-backs-1 pts
Season record-1 pts

Change in MIA's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.

Elo (weight 10%)MIA 30%
Margin model (weight 75%)MIA 31%
Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MIA 29%

Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.