Week 8 · · Ford Field
Low: close to a coin flip.
Detroit Lions' recent scoring (27.1–27.4 points per game vs 21.4–12.6) drives most of this prediction towards Detroit Lions. Minnesota Vikings' higher Elo rating (1621 vs 1546) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| DET win probability | 53% | 60% |
| Spread | DET -1.1 | DET -3.0 |
| Total points | 45.6 | 46.5 |
| Moneyline | DET -170 · MIN +142 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -7 pts on DET winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| MIN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-0 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 1 | 4 |
| Last 10 | 6-0 | 4-2 |
| Streak | W6 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 20.8 | 30.7 |
| Points against / game | 12.3 | 27.5 |
| Average margin | 8.5 | 3.2 |
DET at home · MIN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| DET at home | 3-0 · 27.3–23.7 | 5-3 |
| MIN away | 3-0 · 18.3–10.7 | 5-4 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LDec 25, 2025DET 10 @ MIN 23
- LNov 2, 2025MIN 27 @ DET 24
- WJan 5, 2025MIN 9 @ DET 31
- WOct 20, 2024DET 31 @ MIN 29
- WJan 7, 2024MIN 20 @ DET 30
- WDec 24, 2023DET 30 @ MIN 24
- WDec 11, 2022MIN 23 @ DET 34
- LSep 25, 2022DET 24 @ MIN 28
- WDec 5, 2021MIN 27 @ DET 29
- LOct 10, 2021DET 17 @ MIN 19
W/L from Detroit Lions's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-8 pts
- Points scored / allowed+2 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
Change in DET's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)DET 46%
- Margin model (weight 75%)DET 54%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DET 54%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.