Week 8 · · MetLife Stadium
Low: close to a coin flip.
New York Jets' home form (-8.9 average margin at home) drives most of this prediction towards New York Jets. Las Vegas Raiders' higher Elo rating (1421 vs 1388) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ win probability | 54% | 53% |
| Spread | NYJ -1.3 | NYJ -1.5 |
| Total points | 45.6 | 46.5 |
| Moneyline | NYJ -122 · LV +102 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.5% removed. Gap +1 pts on NYJ winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| LV | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Conference rank | 10 | 12 |
| Last 10 | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 26.1 | 19.6 |
| Points against / game | 28.1 | 21.4 |
| Average margin | -2.0 | -1.9 |
NYJ at home · LV on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ at home | 1-2 · 19.7–20.0 | 2-7 |
| LV away | 2-1 · 26.0–28.7 | 1-7 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LNov 12, 2023NYJ 12 @ LV 16
- LDec 6, 2020LV 31 @ NYJ 28
- WNov 24, 2019LV 3 @ NYJ 34
- LSep 17, 2017NYJ 20 @ LV 45
- LNov 1, 2015NYJ 20 @ LV 34
- WSep 7, 2014LV 14 @ NYJ 19
- WDec 8, 2013LV 27 @ NYJ 37
- LSep 25, 2011NYJ 24 @ LV 34
- WOct 25, 2009NYJ 38 @ LV 0
- LOct 19, 2008NYJ 13 @ LV 16
W/L from New York Jets's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-3 pts
- Points scored / allowed-2 pts
- Home / road form+2 pts
- Season record+1 pts
Change in NYJ's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)NYJ 52%
- Margin model (weight 75%)NYJ 53%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NYJ 57%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.