Week 8 · · SoFi Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Los Angeles Rams' higher Elo rating (1555 vs 1402) and Los Angeles Rams' recent scoring (25.1–23.8 points per game vs 14.6–22.3) drive most of this prediction towards Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles Chargers having more rest (14.0 vs 7.0 days) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| LAR win probability | 73% | 70% |
| Spread | LAR -8.0 | LAR -6.5 |
| Total points | 43.4 | 45.5 |
| Moneyline | LAR -265 · LAC +215 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +3 pts on LAR winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| LAC | LAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-6 | 3-4 |
| Conference rank | 16 | 8 |
| Last 10 | 0-6 | 3-4 |
| Streak | L6 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 15.0 | 24.3 |
| Points against / game | 25.2 | 22.7 |
| Average margin | -10.2 | 1.6 |
LAR at home · LAC on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| LAR at home | 1-3 · 21.2–22.0 | 7-1 |
| LAC away | 0-3 · 15.0–25.3 | 5-4 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 7)
- LJan 1, 2023LAR 10 @ LAC 31
- WSep 23, 2018LAC 23 @ LAR 35
- LNov 23, 2014LAR 24 @ LAC 27
- WOct 17, 2010LAC 17 @ LAR 20
- LOct 29, 2006LAR 24 @ LAC 38
- WNov 10, 2002LAC 24 @ LAR 28
- WOct 1, 2000LAC 31 @ LAR 57
W/L from Los Angeles Rams's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+15 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs-2 pts
- Points scored / allowed+2 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Season record+0 pts
Change in LAR's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)LAR 77%
- Margin model (weight 75%)LAR 71%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)LAR 78%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.