Week 8 · · Empower Field at Mile High
ChiefsKansas City Chiefs
Away · 5-1
QB Patrick Mahomes
Projected
18 – 23
BroncosDenver Broncos
Home · 5-2
QB Bo Nix
36%
64%
36% KC win64% DEN win
Predicted winner
Denver Broncos
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Denver Broncos' higher Elo rating (1600 vs 1555) drives most of this prediction towards Denver Broncos.
Model vs betting line
Model vs market| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN win probability | 64% | 49% |
| Spread | DEN -4.6 | KC -1.5 |
| Total points | 41.5 | 40.5 |
| Moneyline | DEN -105 · KC -115 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.7% removed. Gap +15 pts on DEN winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Kansas City Chiefs
W33–30v IND
W24–10@ MIA
W30–27@ LV
W22–6v LAC
L3–20@ SEA
Denver Broncos
W30–26v LAR
L14–24@ SF
W23–17@ LAC
W17–14v SEA
W30–16@ ARI
Season so far
| KC | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Conference rank | 1 | 4 |
| Last 10 | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Points for / game | 23.8 | 20.6 |
| Points against / game | 17.2 | 20.1 |
| Average margin | 6.7 | 0.4 |
DEN at home · KC on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN at home | 3-0 · 22.3–17.7 | 9-2 |
| KC away | 2-1 · 19.0–19.0 | 1-7 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Kansas City Chiefs
6.9 days
Last played Seattle Seahawks, Oct 25, 2026
Rest · Denver Broncos
7.1 days
Last played Arizona Cardinals, Oct 25, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
4 DEN wins6 KC wins
- LSep 14, 2026DEN 10 @ KC 31
- WDec 25, 2025DEN 20 @ KC 13
- WNov 16, 2025KC 19 @ DEN 22
- WJan 5, 2025KC 0 @ DEN 38
- LNov 10, 2024DEN 14 @ KC 16
- WOct 29, 2023KC 9 @ DEN 24
- LOct 12, 2023DEN 8 @ KC 19
- LJan 1, 2023DEN 24 @ KC 27
- LDec 11, 2022KC 34 @ DEN 28
- LJan 8, 2022KC 28 @ DEN 24
W/L from Denver Broncos's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours KCfavours DEN →
- Elo strength rating+4 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in DEN's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)DEN 64%
- Margin model (weight 75%)DEN 63%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DEN 65%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.