Data last updated Season 2026Model v20261029-e80118
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Week 8 · · EverBank Stadium

Colts
Away · 2-5
QB Daniel Jones
Projected
19 – 30
Jaguars
Home · 4-2
QB Trevor Lawrence
21% IND win79% JAX win
Predicted winner
Jacksonville Jaguars
High confidence

High: the favourite is at least 75%.

Why

Jacksonville Jaguars' higher Elo rating (1592 vs 1422) and Jacksonville Jaguars having more rest (14.0 vs 7.0 days) drive most of this prediction towards Jacksonville Jaguars.

Model vs betting line

ModelMarket
JAX win probability79%80%
SpreadJAX -10.9JAX -10.0
Total points48.346.5
MoneylineJAX -485 · IND +370

Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap -0 pts on JAX winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.

Recent form (last 5)

Indianapolis Colts
W19–17v HOU
W30–13@ WSH
L22–34@ PIT
L20–26v TEN
L10–16@ MIN
Jacksonville Jaguars
L13–20@ DEN
W35–6v NE
W22–17@ CIN
W19–17v PHI
L31–34v HOU

Season so far

INDJAX
Record2-54-2
Conference rank136
Last 102-54-2
StreakL3L1
Points for / game22.025.7
Points against / game25.717.3
Average margin-3.78.3

JAX at home · IND on the road

This seasonLast season
JAX at home3-1 · 29.8–16.87-3
IND away1-3 · 23.0–24.02-6

W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.

Rest · Indianapolis Colts
7.0 days
Last played Minnesota Vikings, Oct 25, 2026
Rest · Jacksonville Jaguars
14.2 days
Last played Houston Texans, Oct 18, 2026

Head to head (last 10)

7 JAX wins3 IND wins
  • WDec 28, 2025JAX 23 @ IND 17
  • WDec 7, 2025IND 19 @ JAX 36
  • LJan 5, 2025JAX 23 @ IND 26
  • WOct 6, 2024IND 34 @ JAX 37
  • WOct 15, 2023IND 20 @ JAX 37
  • WSep 10, 2023JAX 31 @ IND 21
  • LOct 16, 2022JAX 27 @ IND 34
  • WSep 18, 2022IND 0 @ JAX 24
  • WJan 9, 2022IND 11 @ JAX 26
  • LNov 14, 2021JAX 17 @ IND 23

W/L from Jacksonville Jaguars's point of view.

What moves this prediction

← favours INDfavours JAX →
  • Elo strength rating+15 pts
  • Rest & back-to-backs+2 pts
  • Recent point differential+2 pts
  • Season record+1 pts
  • Home / road form+1 pts
  • Points scored / allowed+1 pts

Change in JAX's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.

  • Elo (weight 10%)JAX 79%
  • Margin model (weight 75%)JAX 79%
  • Gradient boosting (weight 15%)JAX 80%

Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.