Week 8 · · Acrisure Stadium
BrownsCleveland Browns
Away · 5-2
QB Deshaun Watson
Projected
17 – 24
SteelersPittsburgh Steelers
Home · 5-2
QB Aaron Rodgers
31%
69%
31% CLE win69% PIT win
Predicted winner
Pittsburgh Steelers
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Pittsburgh Steelers' higher Elo rating (1552 vs 1482) drives most of this prediction towards Pittsburgh Steelers.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| PIT win probability | 69% | 63% |
| Spread | PIT -6.4 | PIT -3.5 |
| Total points | 40.6 | 38.5 |
| Moneyline | PIT -192 · CLE +160 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.2% removed. Gap +5 pts on PIT winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Cleveland Browns
W21–18v CAR
W27–24v PIT
L12–17@ NYJ
W13–10v BAL
W27–24@ TEN
Pittsburgh Steelers
W30–27v CIN
L24–27@ CLE
W34–22v IND
W26–19@ TB
W16–10@ NO
Season so far
| CLE | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Conference rank | 5 | 3 |
| Last 10 | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Points for / game | 19.0 | 21.9 |
| Points against / game | 20.9 | 19.7 |
| Average margin | -1.9 | 2.1 |
PIT at home · CLE on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| PIT at home | 3-0 · 28.0–20.7 | 6-4 |
| CLE away | 2-2 · 18.0–23.5 | 2-6 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Cleveland Browns
7.0 days
Last played Tennessee Titans, Oct 25, 2026
Rest · Pittsburgh Steelers
7.2 days
Last played New Orleans Saints, Oct 25, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
5 PIT wins5 CLE wins
- LOct 1, 2026PIT 24 @ CLE 27
- LDec 28, 2025PIT 6 @ CLE 13
- WOct 12, 2025CLE 9 @ PIT 23
- WDec 8, 2024CLE 14 @ PIT 27
- LNov 21, 2024PIT 19 @ CLE 24
- LNov 19, 2023PIT 10 @ CLE 13
- WSep 18, 2023CLE 22 @ PIT 26
- WJan 8, 2023CLE 14 @ PIT 28
- LSep 22, 2022PIT 17 @ CLE 29
- WJan 3, 2022CLE 14 @ PIT 26
W/L from Pittsburgh Steelers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours CLEfavours PIT →
- Elo strength rating+7 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Recent point differential+0 pts
Change in PIT's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)PIT 67%
- Margin model (weight 75%)PIT 68%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)PIT 72%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.