Week 8 · · Lumen Field
Low: close to a coin flip.
Seattle Seahawks' higher Elo rating (1637 vs 1572) and Seattle Seahawks' recent point differential (+4.5 vs +0.2 per game over the last 4) drive most of this prediction towards Seattle Seahawks. Seattle Seahawks starting a different quarterback than usual pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| SEA win probability | 60% | 60% |
| Spread | SEA -3.3 | SEA -3.0 |
| Total points | 44.3 | 46.5 |
| Moneyline | SEA -170 · CHI +142 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -1 pts on SEA winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| CHI | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Conference rank | 3 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 25.7 | 24.0 |
| Points against / game | 20.4 | 17.9 |
| Average margin | 5.3 | 6.1 |
SEA at home · CHI on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| SEA at home | 3-1 · 23.0–17.0 | 8-2 |
| CHI away | 2-1 · 32.3–30.3 | 5-4 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WDec 26, 2024SEA 6 @ CHI 3
- LDec 26, 2021CHI 25 @ SEA 24
- LSep 17, 2018SEA 17 @ CHI 24
- WSep 27, 2015CHI 0 @ SEA 26
- WDec 2, 2012SEA 23 @ CHI 17
- WDec 18, 2011SEA 38 @ CHI 14
- LJan 16, 2011SEA 24 @ CHI 35playoffs
- WOct 17, 2010SEA 23 @ CHI 20
- LSep 27, 2009CHI 25 @ SEA 19
- WNov 18, 2007CHI 23 @ SEA 30
W/L from Seattle Seahawks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+7 pts
- Quarterback change-5 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs-1 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+1 pts
Change in SEA's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)SEA 66%
- Margin model (weight 75%)SEA 59%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)SEA 61%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.