Week 8 · · Highmark Stadium
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Buffalo Bills' higher Elo rating (1621 vs 1506) and Baltimore Ravens starting a different quarterback than usual drive most of this prediction towards Buffalo Bills. Baltimore Ravens' road form (+8.1 average margin away) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
Model vs market| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| BUF win probability | 73% | 60% |
| Spread | BUF -8.2 | BUF -3.5 |
| Total points | 49.0 | 54.5 |
| Moneyline | BUF -170 · BAL +142 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +13 pts on BUF winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| BAL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Conference rank | 9 | 2 |
| Last 10 | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 24.1 | 32.8 |
| Points against / game | 23.9 | 28.5 |
| Average margin | 0.3 | 4.3 |
BUF at home · BAL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| BUF at home | 2-1 · 30.3–25.3 | 7-2 |
| BAL away | 3-1 · 28.8–22.5 | 5-3 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WSep 7, 2025BAL 40 @ BUF 41
- WJan 19, 2025BAL 25 @ BUF 27playoffs
- LSep 29, 2024BUF 10 @ BAL 35
- WOct 2, 2022BUF 23 @ BAL 20
- WJan 16, 2021BAL 3 @ BUF 17playoffs
- LDec 8, 2019BAL 24 @ BUF 17
- LSep 9, 2018BUF 3 @ BAL 47
- LSep 11, 2016BUF 7 @ BAL 13
- WSep 29, 2013BAL 20 @ BUF 23
- LOct 24, 2010BUF 34 @ BAL 37
W/L from Buffalo Bills's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+11 pts
- Quarterback change+4 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+3 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+1 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
Change in BUF's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)BUF 73%
- Margin model (weight 75%)BUF 73%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)BUF 74%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.