Week 8 · · Raymond James Stadium
Low: close to a coin flip.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting a different quarterback than usual and Atlanta Falcons' higher Elo rating (1493 vs 1474) drive most of this prediction towards Atlanta Falcons. Tampa Bay Buccaneers' better point margin this season (+1.6 vs -0.3 per game) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| TB win probability | 50% | 53% |
| Spread | Pick'em | TB -1.5 |
| Total points | 43.6 | 43.5 |
| Moneyline | TB -125 · ATL +105 |
Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -3 pts on TB winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| ATL | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Conference rank | 10 | 12 |
| Last 10 | 3-4 | 2-5 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 24.4 | 23.1 |
| Points against / game | 24.7 | 21.6 |
| Average margin | -0.3 | 1.6 |
TB at home · ATL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| TB at home | 0-4 · 17.0–22.2 | 4-4 |
| ATL away | 2-1 · 31.0–19.3 | 4-5 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LDec 11, 2025ATL 29 @ TB 28
- WSep 7, 2025TB 23 @ ATL 20
- LOct 27, 2024ATL 31 @ TB 26
- LOct 3, 2024TB 30 @ ATL 36
- WDec 10, 2023TB 29 @ ATL 25
- LOct 22, 2023ATL 16 @ TB 13
- LJan 8, 2023TB 17 @ ATL 30
- WOct 9, 2022ATL 15 @ TB 21
- WDec 5, 2021TB 30 @ ATL 17
- WSep 19, 2021ATL 25 @ TB 48
W/L from Tampa Bay Buccaneers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Quarterback change-6 pts
- Elo strength rating-2 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-1 pts
- Recent point differential+0 pts
Change in TB's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 10%)TB 54%
- Margin model (weight 75%)TB 50%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)TB 47%
Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.