Data last updated Season 2026Model v20261029-e80118
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Week 8 · · AT&T Stadium

Cardinals
Away · 2-5
QB Jacoby Brissett
Projected
22 – 28
Cowboys
Home · 3-4
QB Dak Prescott
32% ARI win68% DAL win
Predicted winner
Dallas Cowboys
Medium confidence

Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.

Why

Dallas Cowboys' higher Elo rating (1470 vs 1388) and Dallas Cowboys' recent point differential (+0.8 vs -12.0 per game over the last 4) drive most of this prediction towards Dallas Cowboys.

Model vs betting line

ModelMarket
DAL win probability68%73%
SpreadDAL -6.4DAL -7.0
Total points49.354.5
MoneylineDAL -325 · ARI +260

Closing line (nflverse). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -5 pts on DAL winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.

Recent form (last 5)

Arizona Cardinals
L30–36@ SF
L24–36@ NYG
L21–45v DET
W18–16@ LAR
L16–30v DEN
Dallas Cowboys
L31–34v BAL
W34–30@ HOU
L16–24v TB
L13–23@ GB
W38–21@ PHI

Season so far

ARIDAL
Record2-53-4
Conference rank159
Last 102-53-4
StreakL1W1
Points for / game20.327.0
Points against / game29.725.7
Average margin-9.41.3

DAL at home · ARI on the road

This seasonLast season
DAL at home1-2 · 28.0–26.04-3-1
ARI away2-2 · 24.5–25.52-7

W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.

Rest · Arizona Cardinals
6.9 days
Last played Denver Broncos, Oct 25, 2026
Rest · Dallas Cowboys
5.7 days
Last played Philadelphia Eagles, Oct 26, 2026

Head to head (last 10)

2 DAL wins8 ARI wins
  • LNov 3, 2025ARI 27 @ DAL 17
  • LSep 24, 2023DAL 16 @ ARI 28
  • LJan 2, 2022ARI 25 @ DAL 22
  • LOct 19, 2020ARI 38 @ DAL 10
  • WSep 25, 2017DAL 28 @ ARI 17
  • LNov 2, 2014ARI 28 @ DAL 17
  • LDec 4, 2011DAL 13 @ ARI 19
  • LDec 25, 2010DAL 26 @ ARI 27
  • LOct 12, 2008DAL 24 @ ARI 30
  • WNov 12, 2006DAL 27 @ ARI 10

W/L from Dallas Cowboys's point of view.

What moves this prediction

← favours ARIfavours DAL →
  • Elo strength rating+8 pts
  • Recent point differential+2 pts
  • Points scored / allowed+2 pts
  • Season record+2 pts
  • Home / road form+1 pts
  • Rest & back-to-backs-0 pts

Change in DAL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.

  • Elo (weight 10%)DAL 69%
  • Margin model (weight 75%)DAL 68%
  • Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DAL 70%

Model version v20261029-e80118. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.