NBA player props
A projection for every player line DraftKings posts (via ESPN), from each player's recent games, with the model's chance of the over or under next to the market's. Confidence: high ≥ 62%, medium ≥ 56% for the model's side. Players listed Out, Doubtful or on IR are removed; Questionable and Day-To-Day are flagged.
Player lines are set by people who know about minutes limits, injuries and matchups that this model does not. Check the backtest below before trusting any lean. Treat these as projections, not bets. Personal and educational use only; 1-800-GAMBLER if gambling stops being fun.
41 props
Celtics @ Magic
· 3:30 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick WhiteBOS · G | 3-pointers made | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 / 1.6 | Under | 65% | 60% | -178 | High |
| Jayson TatumBOS · F | 3-pointers made | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.8 | Under | 63% | 45% | +108 | High |
| Jayson TatumBOS · F | Rebounds | 8.5 | 6.2 | 6.4 / 6.4 | Under | 61% | 54% | -137 | Medium |
| Mitchell RobinsonBOS · CDay-To-Day | Rebounds | 6.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 / 4.6 | Under | 60% | 46% | +104 | Medium |
| Jase RichardsonORL · G | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1 / 1 | Under | 60% | 66% | -234 | Medium |
| Tristan da SilvaORL · F | Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.3 | 2 / 2 | Under | 60% | 55% | -144 | Medium |
| Payton PritchardBOS · G | Assists | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 / 3.6 | Under | 59% | 57% | -157 | Medium |
| Payton PritchardBOS · G | Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 / 2.2 | Under | 59% | 59% | -166 | Medium |
| Franz WagnerORL · F | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 / 1 | Under | 59% | 55% | -141 | Medium |
| Jase RichardsonORL · G | Assists | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.8 | Under | 58% | 57% | -153 | Medium |
| Desmond BaneORL · G | Assists | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 / 2.8 | Under | 58% | 49% | -110 | Medium |
| Tristan da SilvaORL · F | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 2.9 | 3.2 / 3.2 | Over | 57% | 60% | -177 | Medium |
| Payton PritchardBOS · G | 3-pointers made | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 / 2.6 | Under | 56% | 55% | -142 | Medium |
Nets @ Pacers
· 5:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan TraoreBKN · G | Assists | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2 / 2 | Under | 70% | 53% | -133 | High |
| Nolan TraoreBKN · G | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.6 | Under | 65% | 62% | -197 | High |
| Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F | Assists | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1 / 1 | Under | 64% | 61% | -185 | High |
| Day'Ron SharpeBKN · C | Assists | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.2 | Under | 63% | 53% | -129 | High |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.IND · G | Rebounds | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 / 2.7 | Under | 61% | 55% | -139 | Medium |
| Andrew NembhardIND · G | Assists | 9.5 | 7.6 | 8 / 8 | Under | 60% | 54% | -138 | Medium |
| Andrew NembhardIND · G | Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2 / 2 | Under | 60% | 57% | -153 | Medium |
| Day'Ron SharpeBKN · C | Rebounds | 8.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 / 6.6 | Under | 60% | 53% | -131 | Medium |
| Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F | 3-pointers made | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 / 3.4 | Under | 59% | 56% | -152 | Medium |
| Andrew NembhardIND · G | 3-pointers made | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 / 2.2 | Under | 59% | 61% | -189 | Medium |
| Aaron NesmithIND · GDay-To-Day | Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2 / 2 | Under | 59% | 57% | -155 | Medium |
| Jay HuffIND · C | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.2 | Under | 58% | 58% | -160 | Medium |
| Keon EllisBKN · G | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.2 | Under | 57% | 62% | -193 | Medium |
| Moritz WagnerBKN · C | 3-pointers made | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.4 | Over | 57% | 63% | -202 | Medium |
| Jay HuffIND · C | Rebounds | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 / 3.4 | Under | 57% | 54% | -135 | Medium |
Clippers @ Warriors
· 8:30 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui SantosGS · FDay-To-Day | Assists | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.4 | Under | 61% | 53% | -128 | Medium |
| Darius GarlandLAC · G | Assists | 7.5 | 6.0 | 6.2 / 6.2 | Under | 60% | 49% | -111 | Medium |
| Isaiah JacksonLAC · F | Rebounds | 7.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 / 5.8 | Under | 59% | 55% | -143 | Medium |
| Brandin PodziemskiGS · G | 3-pointers made | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 / 2.2 | Under | 59% | 56% | -150 | Medium |
| Darius GarlandLAC · G | Rebounds | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.6 | Under | 57% | 49% | -108 | Medium |
| Brandin PodziemskiGS · G | Rebounds | 5.5 | 4.7 | 4.8 / 4.8 | Under | 57% | 48% | -106 | Medium |
| Yaxel LendeborgGS · F | Rebounds | 8.5 | 7.6 | 8.8 / 7.8 | Under | 56% | 51% | -122 | Medium |
Raptors @ Lakers
· 9:00 PM EST
| Player | Market | Line | Projection | Last 5 / 10 | Lean | Model | Market | Price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie BarnesTOR · F | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.6 | Under | 64% | 64% | -219 | High |
| Sandro MamukelashviliLAL · F | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1 / 0.8 | Under | 61% | 65% | -229 | Medium |
| Scottie BarnesTOR · F | Assists | 5.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 / 4.4 | Under | 60% | 51% | -118 | Medium |
| RJ BarrettTOR · F | 3-pointers made | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1 / 1 | Under | 59% | 51% | -122 | Medium |
| Scottie BarnesTOR · F | Rebounds | 7.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 / 6.8 | Under | 57% | 56% | -147 | Medium |
| Jakob PoeltlTOR · C | Assists | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1 / 1 | Under | 56% | 47% | +101 | Medium |
Backtest: fitted on 2024-25 lines, scored on 2025 & 2026
| Market | Test props | Projection miss | Line miss | Log loss model / market | Confident picks won | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 6,911 | 5.24 | 4.90 | 0.693 / 0.693 | – (0) | – |
| Rebounds | 6,322 | 2.12 | 2.07 | 0.692 / 0.694 | 56.0% (1197) | +5.2% |
| Assists | 4,715 | 1.69 | 1.68 | 0.688 / 0.694 | 56.8% (1023) | +9.0% |
| 3-pointers made | 5,396 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 0.687 / 0.692 | 58.1% (2195) | +8.0% |
| Points + rebounds + assists | 5,238 | 6.84 | 6.39 | 0.693 / 0.693 | 66.7% (3) | +24.8% |
"Projection miss" and "line miss" are average absolute errors against what the player actually did; a smaller line miss means the bookmaker's number was closer. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Live props settled
53
medium/high picks frozen at tip-off
Live hit rate
64.1%
Live return
+12.3%
per $1 at the frozen price