NBA prediction history · 2026-27
Live rows are predictions frozen at tip-off / kickoff and never edited. Backtest rows are games played before this app existed, predicted by models trained only on earlier seasons: out-of-sample, but not published in advance.
Games
88
20 live · 68 backtest
Winner picked
61.4%
market favourite 65.0%
Log loss
0.639
market 0.599 (n 20)
Margin error
12.3 pts
mean absolute error
Running average log loss (lower is better)
Results
| Date | Game | Home win (model) | Market | Margin pred / actual | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026live |  OKC 98@HOU 119 | 50% | 56% | 0.0 / +21 | ✗ OKC |
| Oct 31, 2026live |  MIN 111@SA 121 | 67% | 82% | +5.8 / +10 | ✓ SA |
| Oct 31, 2026live |  CLE 136@MIL 111 | 35% | 26% | -5.1 / -25 | ✓ CLE |
| Oct 31, 2026live |  SAC 105@MEM 136 | 68% | 72% | +6.1 / +31 | ✓ MEM |
| Oct 31, 2026live |  ATL 99@NO 121 | 44% | 38% | -2.1 / +22 | ✗ ATL |
| Oct 31, 2026live |  PHI 109@CHA 104 | 54% | 48% | +1.4 / -5 | ✗ CHA |
| Oct 31, 2026live |  POR 112@UTAH 90 | 32% | 29% | -6.3 / -22 | ✓ POR |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  DEN 127@PHX 120 | 46% | 39% | -1.3 / -7 | ✓ DEN |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  LAL 95@GS 112 | 41% | 42% | -3.1 / +17 | ✗ LAL |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  IND 125@MIA 145 | 63% | 73% | +4.6 / +20 | ✓ MIA |
| Oct 30, 2026live | HOU 111@DAL 116 | 35% | 33% | -5.3 / +5 | ✗ HOU |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  LAC 101@MIN 127 | 66% | 70% | +5.4 / +26 | ✓ MIN |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  ORL 121@TOR 114 | 71% | 66% | +7.5 / -7 | ✗ TOR |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  NY 93@PHI 98 | 43% | 42% | -2.5 / +5 | ✗ NY |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  DET 110@BKN 94 | 22% | 27% | -10.2 / -16 | ✓ DET |
| Oct 30, 2026live |  CHI 111@BOS 125 | 84% | 86% | +13.1 / +14 | ✓ BOS |
| Oct 30, 2026live | CHA 79@WSH 95 | 31% | 49% | -6.5 / +16 | ✗ CHA |
| Oct 29, 2026live | MEM 124@POR 103 | 75% | 71% | +9.2 / -21 | ✗ POR |
| Oct 29, 2026live | SAC 120@NO 132 | 62% | 68% | +4.1 / +12 | ✓ NO |
| Oct 29, 2026live | CLE 111@ATL 114 | 57% | 50% | +2.5 / +3 | ✓ ATL |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | LAL 103@LAC 87 | 59% | – | +2.9 / -16 | ✗ LAC |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | OKC 96@DAL 120 | 25% | – | -9.2 / +24 | ✗ OKC |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | SA 117@UTAH 111 | 23% | – | -9.8 / -6 | ✓ SA |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | DEN 104@NO 91 | 46% | – | -1.3 / -13 | ✓ DEN |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | GS 119@MIN 114 | 74% | – | +8.7 / -5 | ✗ MIN |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | HOU 132@MIL 100 | 32% | – | -6.4 / -32 | ✓ HOU |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | NY 133@CHI 127 | 24% | – | -9.4 / -6 | ✓ NY |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | ORL 99@TOR 129 | 65% | – | +5.3 / +30 | ✓ TOR |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | PHI 114@IND 109 | 41% | – | -3.0 / -5 | ✓ PHI |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | CHA 89@DET 97 | 62% | – | +4.2 / +8 | ✓ DET |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | WSH 111@CLE 121 | 77% | – | +9.8 / +10 | ✓ CLE |
| Oct 28, 2026backtest | MIA 129@ATL 117 | 69% | – | +6.5 / -12 | ✗ ATL |
| Oct 27, 2026backtest | POR 136@LAL 129 | 58% | – | +2.8 / -7 | ✗ LAL |
| Oct 27, 2026backtest | SAC 103@SA 130 | 85% | – | +13.9 / +27 | ✓ SA |
| Oct 27, 2026backtest | DET 97@NY 111 | 57% | – | +2.2 / +14 | ✓ NY |
| Oct 27, 2026backtest | BKN 124@BOS 125 | 84% | – | +13.2 / +1 | ✓ BOS |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | GS 134@DEN 114 | 73% | – | +8.3 / -20 | ✗ DEN |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | MEM 110@UTAH 105 | 49% | – | -0.4 / -5 | ✓ MEM |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | ATL 110@HOU 120 | 58% | – | +2.8 / +10 | ✓ HOU |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | PHX 114@OKC 125 | 79% | – | +10.6 / +11 | ✓ OKC |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | IND 102@MIL 110 | 54% | – | +1.4 / +8 | ✓ MIL |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | DAL 113@MIA 109 | 63% | – | +4.5 / -4 | ✗ MIA |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | CHI 99@BOS 134 | 80% | – | +11.3 / +35 | ✓ BOS |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | WSH 103@CHA 110 | 76% | – | +9.6 / +7 | ✓ CHA |
| Oct 26, 2026backtest | MIN 125@CLE 127 | 50% | – | -0.1 / +2 | ✗ MIN |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | MEM 123@SAC 112 | 53% | – | +0.9 / -11 | ✗ SAC |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | DET 106@PHI 93 | 42% | – | -2.8 / -13 | ✓ DET |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | LAC 101@OKC 108 | 71% | – | +7.2 / +7 | ✓ OKC |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | TOR 94@MIN 117 | 58% | – | +2.6 / +23 | ✓ MIN |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | ORL 111@NY 102 | 75% | – | +9.0 / -9 | ✗ NY |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | IND 136@BKN 109 | 48% | – | -0.6 / -27 | ✓ IND |
| Oct 25, 2026backtest | LAL 132@UTAH 123 | 27% | – | -8.3 / -9 | ✓ LAL |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | GS 122@PHX 131 | 57% | – | +2.3 / +9 | ✓ PHX |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | NO 135@DEN 141 | 73% | – | +8.2 / +6 | ✓ DEN |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | HOU 121@ATL 114 | 59% | – | +3.1 / -7 | ✗ ATL |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | WSH 124@CHI 120 | 58% | – | +2.6 / -4 | ✗ CHI |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | SA 122@DAL 106 | 31% | – | -6.6 / -16 | ✓ SA |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | MIL 116@PHI 127 | 74% | – | +8.5 / +11 | ✓ PHI |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | BKN 121@CLE 125 | 76% | – | +9.5 / +4 | ✓ CLE |
| Oct 24, 2026backtest | MIA 110@CHA 115 | 63% | – | +4.6 / +5 | ✓ CHA |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | POR 128@SAC 120 | 25% | – | -8.9 / -8 | ✓ POR |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | LAC 117@LAL 125 | 58% | – | +2.6 / +8 | ✓ LAL |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | MEM 111@GS 108 | 57% | – | +2.4 / -3 | ✗ GS |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | NO 119@UTAH 120 | 40% | – | -3.2 / +1 | ✗ NO |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | HOU 114@SA 110 | 61% | – | +3.7 / -4 | ✗ SA |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | DET 128@MIA 111 | 40% | – | -3.4 / -17 | ✓ DET |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | ATL 128@CHA 81 | 65% | – | +5.0 / -47 | ✗ CHA |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | NY 103@BOS 107 | 48% | – | -0.6 / +4 | ✗ NY |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | TOR 112@WSH 102 | 23% | – | -10.0 / -10 | ✓ TOR |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | DAL 121@IND 105 | 55% | – | +1.8 / -16 | ✗ IND |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | MIN 115@ORL 93 | 47% | – | -1.0 / -22 | ✓ MIN |
| Oct 23, 2026backtest | CHI 132@MIL 125 | 66% | – | +5.6 / -7 | ✗ MIL |
| Oct 22, 2026backtest | DEN 84@OKC 96 | 68% | – | +6.1 / +12 | ✓ OKC |
| Oct 22, 2026backtest | CLE 106@PHI 114 | 50% | – | +0.1 / +8 | ✓ PHI |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | SAC 96@LAC 121 | 73% | – | +8.1 / +25 | ✓ LAC |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | PHX 83@POR 124 | 58% | – | +2.6 / +41 | ✓ POR |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | GS 105@LAL 127 | 69% | – | +6.4 / +22 | ✓ LAL |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | DAL 110@HOU 128 | 74% | – | +8.7 / +18 | ✓ HOU |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | UTAH 103@MEM 123 | 55% | – | +1.5 / +20 | ✓ MEM |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | IND 123@NO 120 | 62% | – | +4.1 / -3 | ✗ NO |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | CHI 92@TOR 135 | 72% | – | +7.7 / +43 | ✓ TOR |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | CHA 110@BKN 103 | 27% | – | -8.0 / -7 | ✓ CHA |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | MIN 131@MIA 106 | 55% | – | +1.7 / -25 | ✗ MIA |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | MIL 116@WSH 128 | 43% | – | -2.3 / +12 | ✗ MIL |
| Oct 21, 2026backtest | ATL 132@ORL 125 | 58% | – | +2.8 / -7 | ✗ ORL |
| Oct 20, 2026backtest | OKC 116@SA 104 | 57% | – | +2.3 / -12 | ✗ SA |
| Oct 20, 2026backtest | PHI 106@NY 100 | 76% | – | +9.4 / -6 | ✗ NY |
| Oct 20, 2026backtest | BOS 113@DET 121 | 57% | – | +2.3 / +8 | ✓ DET |
Margins are from the home team's point of view.