· Moda Center
55%
45%
55% SA win45% POR win
Predicted winner
San Antonio Spurs
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
San Antonio Spurs' higher Elo rating (1639 vs 1528) drives most of this prediction towards San Antonio Spurs.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| POR win probability | 45% | – |
| Spread | SA -1.6 | – |
| Total points | 222.3 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
San Antonio Spurs
L110–114v HOU
W122–106@ DAL
W130–103v SAC
W117–111@ UTAH
W121–111v MIN
Portland Trail Blazers
W124–83v PHX
W128–120@ SAC
W136–129@ LAL
L103–124v MEM
W112–90@ UTAH
Season so far
| SA | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 4-1 |
| Conference rank | 4 | 3 |
| Last 10 | 4-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 117.3 | 120.6 |
| Points against / game | 110.2 | 109.2 |
| Average margin | 7.2 | 11.4 |
POR at home · SA on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| POR at home | 1-1 · 113.5–103.5 | 24-19 |
| SA away | 2-0 · 119.5–108.5 | 37-17 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · San Antonio Spurs
7.1 days
Last played Minnesota Timberwolves, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Portland Trail Blazers
7.3 days
Last played Utah Jazz, Oct 31, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
3 POR wins7 SA wins
- LApr 28, 2026POR 95 @ SA 114playoffs
- LApr 26, 2026SA 114 @ POR 93playoffs
- LApr 24, 2026SA 120 @ POR 108playoffs
- WApr 21, 2026POR 106 @ SA 103playoffs
- LApr 19, 2026POR 98 @ SA 111playoffs
- LApr 8, 2026POR 101 @ SA 112
- WJan 3, 2026POR 115 @ SA 110
- LNov 26, 2025SA 115 @ POR 102
- WApr 6, 2025SA 109 @ POR 120
- LDec 21, 2024POR 94 @ SA 114
W/L from Portland Trail Blazers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours SAfavours POR →
- Elo strength rating-13 pts
- Season record+0 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
- Recent point differential-0 pts
Change in POR's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)POR 41%
- Margin model (weight 50%)POR 49%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)POR 43%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.