· Mortgage Matchup Center
64%
36%
64% HOU win36% PHX win
Predicted winner
Houston Rockets
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Houston Rockets' higher Elo rating (1594 vs 1492) and Houston Rockets' better season record (86% vs 25% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Houston Rockets.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| PHX win probability | 36% | – |
| Spread | HOU -4.7 | – |
| Total points | 226.8 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Houston Rockets
W121–114@ ATL
W120–110v ATL
W132–100@ MIL
L111–116@ DAL
W119–98v OKC
Phoenix Suns
L122–131v OKC
L83–124@ POR
W131–122v GS
L114–125@ OKC
L120–127v DEN
Season so far
| HOU | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Conference rank | 2 | 12 |
| Last 10 | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 120.7 | 112.0 |
| Points against / game | 108.3 | 124.5 |
| Average margin | 12.4 | -12.5 |
PHX at home · HOU on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| PHX at home | 1-1 · 125.5–124.5 | 25-18 |
| HOU away | 3-1 · 119.5–110.0 | 23-21 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Houston Rockets
7.1 days
Last played Oklahoma City Thunder, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Phoenix Suns
8.0 days
Last played Denver Nuggets, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
1 PHX wins9 HOU wins
- LApr 7, 2026HOU 119 @ PHX 105
- LJan 5, 2026PHX 97 @ HOU 100
- LDec 5, 2025PHX 98 @ HOU 117
- LNov 24, 2025HOU 114 @ PHX 92
- LMar 30, 2025HOU 148 @ PHX 109
- LMar 12, 2025PHX 104 @ HOU 111
- LFeb 12, 2025PHX 111 @ HOU 119
- LMar 2, 2024HOU 118 @ PHX 109
- WFeb 29, 2024HOU 105 @ PHX 110
- LFeb 23, 2024PHX 110 @ HOU 114
W/L from Phoenix Suns's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours HOUfavours PHX →
- Elo strength rating-12 pts
- Season record-5 pts
- Recent point differential-3 pts
- Points scored / allowed-1 pts
- Home / road form-0 pts
Change in PHX's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)PHX 42%
- Margin model (weight 50%)PHX 33%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)PHX 34%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.