· Chase Center
Low: close to a coin flip.
Golden State Warriors' better season record (50% vs 40% wins) drives most of this prediction towards Golden State Warriors. Orlando Magic's higher Elo rating (1515 vs 1485) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| GS win probability | 57% | – |
| Spread | GS -2.2 | – |
| Total points | 225.9 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| ORL | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Conference rank | 9 | 10 |
| Last 10 | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Points for / game | 109.8 | 116.7 |
| Points against / game | 118.4 | 115.3 |
| Average margin | -8.6 | 1.3 |
GS at home · ORL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| GS at home | 1-1 · 110.0–103.0 | 22-19 |
| ORL away | 2-1 · 110.3–115.0 | 20-24 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WDec 22, 2025ORL 97 @ GS 120
- LNov 18, 2025GS 113 @ ORL 121
- WFeb 27, 2025GS 121 @ ORL 115
- WFeb 3, 2025ORL 99 @ GS 104
- WMar 27, 2024GS 101 @ ORL 93
- WJan 2, 2024ORL 115 @ GS 121
- LJan 7, 2023ORL 115 @ GS 101
- LNov 3, 2022GS 129 @ ORL 130
- LMar 22, 2022GS 90 @ ORL 94
- WDec 6, 2021ORL 95 @ GS 126
W/L from Golden State Warriors's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-4 pts
- Season record+3 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
Change in GS's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)GS 53%
- Margin model (weight 50%)GS 59%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)GS 56%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.