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High: the favourite is at least 75%.
Oklahoma City Thunder's higher Elo rating (1633 vs 1368) and Oklahoma City Thunder's home form (+11.4 average margin at home) drive most of this prediction towards Oklahoma City Thunder.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| OKC win probability | 84% | – |
| Spread | OKC -13.2 | – |
| Total points | 229.4 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| WSH | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 6 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 110.5 | 106.5 |
| Points against / game | 109.7 | 107.0 |
| Average margin | 0.8 | -0.5 |
OKC at home · WSH on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| OKC at home | 3-0 · 109.7–99.7 | 40-10 |
| WSH away | 1-2 · 112.7–117.0 | 6-35 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WMar 21, 2026OKC 132 @ WSH 111
- WOct 30, 2025WSH 108 @ OKC 127
- WJan 12, 2025OKC 136 @ WSH 95
- WDec 23, 2024WSH 105 @ OKC 123
- WFeb 23, 2024WSH 106 @ OKC 147
- WJan 8, 2024OKC 136 @ WSH 128
- WJan 6, 2023WSH 110 @ OKC 127
- WNov 16, 2022OKC 121 @ WSH 120
- LJan 11, 2022OKC 118 @ WSH 122
- LNov 26, 2021WSH 101 @ OKC 99
W/L from Oklahoma City Thunder's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+24 pts
- Home / road form+2 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in OKC's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)OKC 88%
- Margin model (weight 50%)OKC 81%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)OKC 84%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.