· State Farm Arena
23%
77%
23% BKN win77% ATL win
Predicted winner
Atlanta Hawks
High confidenceHigh: the favourite is at least 75%.
Why
Atlanta Hawks' higher Elo rating (1512 vs 1346) and Atlanta Hawks' better season record (43% vs 0% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Atlanta Hawks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| ATL win probability | 77% | – |
| Spread | ATL -10.0 | – |
| Total points | 227.5 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Brooklyn Nets
L103–110v CHA
L121–125@ CLE
L109–136v IND
L124–125@ BOS
L94–110v DET
Atlanta Hawks
L114–121v HOU
L110–120@ HOU
L117–129v MIA
W114–111v CLE
L99–121@ NO
Season so far
| BKN | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 3-4 |
| Conference rank | 15 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 0-5 | 3-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 110.2 | 116.3 |
| Points against / game | 121.2 | 115.4 |
| Average margin | -11.0 | 0.9 |
ATL at home · BKN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| ATL at home | 1-2 · 115.0–120.3 | 25-19 |
| BKN away | 0-2 · 122.5–125.0 | 8-33 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Brooklyn Nets
8.0 days
Last played Detroit Pistons, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Atlanta Hawks
7.1 days
Last played New Orleans Pelicans, Oct 31, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
6 ATL wins4 BKN wins
- WApr 3, 2026ATL 141 @ BKN 107
- WMar 12, 2026BKN 97 @ ATL 108
- WFeb 22, 2026BKN 104 @ ATL 115
- WOct 29, 2025ATL 117 @ BKN 112
- WApr 10, 2025ATL 133 @ BKN 109
- LMar 16, 2025ATL 114 @ BKN 122
- WOct 23, 2024BKN 116 @ ATL 120
- LMar 2, 2024ATL 102 @ BKN 114
- LFeb 29, 2024ATL 97 @ BKN 124
- LDec 6, 2023BKN 114 @ ATL 113
W/L from Atlanta Hawks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours BKNfavours ATL →
- Elo strength rating+16 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
Change in ATL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)ATL 79%
- Margin model (weight 50%)ATL 76%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)ATL 78%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.