· Arena CDMX (neutral site)
71%
29%
71% DEN win29% IND win
Predicted winner
Denver Nuggets
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Denver Nuggets' higher Elo rating (1564 vs 1387) and Denver Nuggets' road form (-1.5 average margin away) drive most of this prediction towards Denver Nuggets.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| IND win probability | 29% | – |
| Spread | DEN -7.6 | – |
| Total points | 231.8 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Denver Nuggets
L84–96@ OKC
W141–135v NO
L114–134v GS
W104–91@ NO
W127–120@ PHX
Indiana Pacers
L105–121v DAL
W136–109@ BKN
L102–110@ MIL
L109–114v PHI
L125–145@ MIA
Season so far
| DEN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Conference rank | 8 | 11 |
| Last 10 | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Points for / game | 114.0 | 116.7 |
| Points against / game | 115.2 | 119.8 |
| Average margin | -1.2 | -3.2 |
IND at home · DEN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| IND at home | 0-2 · 107.0–117.5 | 11-30 |
| DEN away | 2-1 · 105.0–102.3 | 26-18 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Denver Nuggets
7.8 days
Last played Phoenix Suns, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Indiana Pacers
7.9 days
Last played Miami Heat, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
1 IND wins9 DEN wins
- LDec 3, 2025DEN 135 @ IND 120
- LNov 8, 2025IND 100 @ DEN 117
- WApr 6, 2025IND 125 @ DEN 120
- LFeb 24, 2025DEN 125 @ IND 116
- LJan 23, 2024DEN 114 @ IND 109
- LJan 14, 2024IND 109 @ DEN 117
- LJan 20, 2023IND 111 @ DEN 134
- LNov 9, 2022DEN 122 @ IND 119
- LMar 30, 2022DEN 125 @ IND 118
- LNov 10, 2021IND 98 @ DEN 101
W/L from Indiana Pacers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours DENfavours IND →
- Elo strength rating-20 pts
- Home / road form-2 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Recent point differential-0 pts
Change in IND's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)IND 26%
- Margin model (weight 50%)IND 29%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)IND 35%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.