· Chase Center
44%
56%
44% MIA win56% GS win
Predicted winner
Golden State Warriors
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage tips it towards Golden State Warriors.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| GS win probability | 56% | – |
| Spread | GS -2.0 | – |
| Total points | 242.1 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Miami Heat
L111–128v DET
L110–115@ CHA
L109–113v DAL
W129–117@ ATL
W145–125v IND
Golden State Warriors
L108–111v MEM
L122–131@ PHX
W134–114@ DEN
W119–114@ MIN
W112–95v LAL
Season so far
| MIA | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Conference rank | 12 | 10 |
| Last 10 | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Points for / game | 118.3 | 116.7 |
| Points against / game | 121.5 | 115.3 |
| Average margin | -3.2 | 1.3 |
GS at home · MIA on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| GS at home | 1-1 · 110.0–103.0 | 22-19 |
| MIA away | 1-1 · 119.5–116.0 | 17-24 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Miami Heat
6.1 days
Last played Indiana Pacers, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Golden State Warriors
6.0 days
Last played Los Angeles Lakers, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
5 GS wins5 MIA wins
- WJan 19, 2026MIA 112 @ GS 135
- LNov 19, 2025GS 96 @ MIA 110
- LMar 25, 2025GS 86 @ MIA 112
- LJan 7, 2025MIA 114 @ GS 98
- WMar 26, 2024GS 113 @ MIA 92
- LDec 28, 2023MIA 114 @ GS 102
- LNov 1, 2022GS 109 @ MIA 116
- WOct 27, 2022MIA 110 @ GS 123
- WMar 23, 2022GS 118 @ MIA 104
- WJan 3, 2022MIA 108 @ GS 115
W/L from Golden State Warriors's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours MIAfavours GS →
- Elo strength rating-1 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in GS's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)GS 56%
- Margin model (weight 50%)GS 55%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)GS 57%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.