· Mortgage Matchup Center
47%
53%
47% ORL win53% PHX win
Predicted winner
Phoenix Suns
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage tips it towards Phoenix Suns.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| PHX win probability | 53% | – |
| Spread | PHX -1.0 | – |
| Total points | 224.7 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Orlando Magic
L125–132v ATL
L93–115v MIN
W111–102@ NY
L99–129@ TOR
W121–114@ TOR
Phoenix Suns
L122–131v OKC
L83–124@ POR
W131–122v GS
L114–125@ OKC
L120–127v DEN
Season so far
| ORL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Conference rank | 9 | 12 |
| Last 10 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 109.8 | 112.0 |
| Points against / game | 118.4 | 124.5 |
| Average margin | -8.6 | -12.5 |
PHX at home · ORL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| PHX at home | 1-1 · 125.5–124.5 | 25-18 |
| ORL away | 2-1 · 110.3–115.0 | 20-24 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Orlando Magic
6.1 days
Last played Toronto Raptors, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Phoenix Suns
6.0 days
Last played Denver Nuggets, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
5 PHX wins5 ORL wins
- LMar 31, 2026PHX 111 @ ORL 115
- WFeb 21, 2026ORL 110 @ PHX 113
- LDec 8, 2024PHX 110 @ ORL 115
- LNov 18, 2024ORL 109 @ PHX 99
- LJan 28, 2024PHX 98 @ ORL 113
- WDec 31, 2023ORL 107 @ PHX 112
- WMar 16, 2023ORL 113 @ PHX 116
- LNov 11, 2022PHX 97 @ ORL 114
- WMar 8, 2022PHX 102 @ ORL 99
- WFeb 12, 2022ORL 105 @ PHX 132
W/L from Phoenix Suns's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours ORLfavours PHX →
- Elo strength rating-3 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Season record-0 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
Change in PHX's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)PHX 54%
- Margin model (weight 50%)PHX 53%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)PHX 50%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.