· Intuit Dome
42%
58%
42% MIA win58% LAC win
Predicted winner
LA Clippers
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage tips it towards LA Clippers.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC win probability | 58% | – |
| Spread | LAC -2.7 | – |
| Total points | 237.9 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Miami Heat
L111–128v DET
L110–115@ CHA
L109–113v DAL
W129–117@ ATL
W145–125v IND
LA Clippers
W121–96v SAC
L117–125@ LAL
L101–108@ OKC
L87–103v LAL
L101–127@ MIN
Season so far
| MIA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Conference rank | 12 | 13 |
| Last 10 | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L4 |
| Points for / game | 118.3 | 105.4 |
| Points against / game | 121.5 | 111.8 |
| Average margin | -3.2 | -6.4 |
LAC at home · MIA on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| LAC at home | 1-1 · 104.0–99.5 | 23-18 |
| MIA away | 1-1 · 119.5–116.0 | 17-24 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Miami Heat
5.1 days
Last played Indiana Pacers, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · LA Clippers
5.1 days
Last played Minnesota Timberwolves, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
5 LAC wins5 MIA wins
- LDec 1, 2025LAC 123 @ MIA 140
- LNov 3, 2025MIA 120 @ LAC 119
- WMar 12, 2025LAC 119 @ MIA 104
- WJan 13, 2025MIA 98 @ LAC 109
- WFeb 4, 2024LAC 103 @ MIA 95
- WJan 1, 2024MIA 104 @ LAC 121
- LJan 2, 2023MIA 110 @ LAC 100
- LDec 8, 2022LAC 110 @ MIA 115
- LJan 28, 2022LAC 114 @ MIA 121
- WNov 11, 2021MIA 109 @ LAC 112
W/L from LA Clippers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours MIAfavours LAC →
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Elo strength rating+1 pts
- Season record-0 pts
Change in LAC's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)LAC 59%
- Margin model (weight 50%)LAC 58%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)LAC 56%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.