· Frost Bank Center
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
San Antonio Spurs' higher Elo rating (1639 vs 1459) and San Antonio Spurs' better point margin this season (+7.2 vs +2.5 per game) drive most of this prediction towards San Antonio Spurs.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| SA win probability | 80% | – |
| Spread | SA -11.1 | – |
| Total points | 226.1 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| DAL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 6 | 4 |
| Last 10 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Streak | W3 | W4 |
| Points for / game | 114.3 | 117.3 |
| Points against / game | 111.8 | 110.2 |
| Average margin | 2.5 | 7.2 |
SA at home · DAL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| SA at home | 2-2 · 116.2–111.0 | 38-14 |
| DAL away | 2-1 · 114.7–114.0 | 10-31 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WOct 24, 2026SA 122 @ DAL 106
- WApr 10, 2026DAL 120 @ SA 139
- WFeb 7, 2026DAL 125 @ SA 138
- WFeb 5, 2026SA 135 @ DAL 123
- WOct 22, 2025SA 125 @ DAL 92
- WMar 12, 2025DAL 116 @ SA 126
- LMar 10, 2025DAL 133 @ SA 129
- LNov 16, 2024SA 93 @ DAL 110
- LOct 24, 2024SA 109 @ DAL 120
- LMar 19, 2024DAL 113 @ SA 107
W/L from San Antonio Spurs's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+17 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in SA's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)SA 81%
- Margin model (weight 50%)SA 78%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)SA 81%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.