· Mortgage Matchup Center
55%
45%
55% POR win45% PHX win
Predicted winner
Portland Trail Blazers
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
Portland Trail Blazers' better season record (80% vs 25% wins) and Portland Trail Blazers' higher Elo rating (1528 vs 1492) drive most of this prediction towards Portland Trail Blazers.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| PHX win probability | 45% | – |
| Spread | POR -1.8 | – |
| Total points | 228.0 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Portland Trail Blazers
W124–83v PHX
W128–120@ SAC
W136–129@ LAL
L103–124v MEM
W112–90@ UTAH
Phoenix Suns
L122–131v OKC
L83–124@ POR
W131–122v GS
L114–125@ OKC
L120–127v DEN
Season so far
| POR | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Conference rank | 3 | 12 |
| Last 10 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 120.6 | 112.0 |
| Points against / game | 109.2 | 124.5 |
| Average margin | 11.4 | -12.5 |
PHX at home · POR on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| PHX at home | 1-1 · 125.5–124.5 | 25-18 |
| POR away | 3-0 · 125.3–113.0 | 19-25 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Portland Trail Blazers
4.3 days
Last played Utah Jazz, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Phoenix Suns
5.0 days
Last played Denver Nuggets, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
6 PHX wins4 POR wins
- LOct 21, 2026PHX 83 @ POR 124
- LFeb 22, 2026POR 92 @ PHX 77
- WFeb 3, 2026PHX 130 @ POR 125
- WNov 18, 2025PHX 127 @ POR 110
- LFeb 3, 2025PHX 119 @ POR 121
- LFeb 1, 2025PHX 108 @ POR 127
- WDec 15, 2024POR 109 @ PHX 116
- WNov 2, 2024POR 97 @ PHX 103
- WJan 14, 2024PHX 127 @ POR 116
- WJan 1, 2024POR 88 @ PHX 109
W/L from Phoenix Suns's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours PORfavours PHX →
- Season record-5 pts
- Elo strength rating-5 pts
- Recent point differential-2 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
- Home / road form-0 pts
Change in PHX's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)PHX 52%
- Margin model (weight 50%)PHX 40%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)PHX 43%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.