· Ball Arena
Low: close to a coin flip.
Denver Nuggets' higher Elo rating (1564 vs 1525) and Denver Nuggets' home form (+8.9 average margin at home) drive most of this prediction towards Denver Nuggets. Toronto Raptors' better point margin this season (+10.6 vs -1.2 per game) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN win probability | 58% | – |
| Spread | DEN -2.6 | – |
| Total points | 231.0 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| TOR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Conference rank | 5 | 8 |
| Last 10 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 116.8 | 114.0 |
| Points against / game | 106.2 | 115.2 |
| Average margin | 10.6 | -1.2 |
DEN at home · TOR on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN at home | 1-1 · 127.5–134.5 | 30-14 |
| TOR away | 1-1 · 103.0–109.5 | 22-23 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WMar 20, 2026TOR 115 @ DEN 121
- WDec 31, 2025DEN 106 @ TOR 103
- WNov 4, 2024TOR 119 @ DEN 121
- WOct 28, 2024DEN 127 @ TOR 125
- WMar 11, 2024TOR 119 @ DEN 125
- WDec 20, 2023DEN 113 @ TOR 104
- LMar 14, 2023DEN 110 @ TOR 125
- WMar 6, 2023TOR 113 @ DEN 118
- LMar 12, 2022TOR 127 @ DEN 115
- WFeb 12, 2022DEN 110 @ TOR 109
W/L from Denver Nuggets's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Season record-4 pts
- Elo strength rating+4 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
Change in DEN's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)DEN 63%
- Margin model (weight 50%)DEN 53%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DEN 60%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.