· Toyota Center (Houston)
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Houston Rockets' higher Elo rating (1594 vs 1568) and Houston Rockets' recent point differential (+13.0 vs +6.4 per game over the last 5) drive most of this prediction towards Houston Rockets. Minnesota Timberwolves' better point margin this season (+11.3 vs +12.4 per game) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| HOU win probability | 62% | – |
| Spread | HOU -4.1 | – |
| Total points | 224.8 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| MIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 6-1 |
| Conference rank | 9 | 2 |
| Last 10 | 4-3 | 6-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 120.0 | 120.7 |
| Points against / game | 108.7 | 108.3 |
| Average margin | 11.3 | 12.4 |
HOU at home · MIN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| HOU at home | 3-0 · 122.3–106.0 | 31-13 |
| MIN away | 2-2 · 120.5–111.8 | 25-22 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LApr 10, 2026MIN 136 @ HOU 132
- LMar 25, 2026HOU 108 @ MIN 110
- WJan 16, 2026MIN 105 @ HOU 110
- WFeb 21, 2025MIN 115 @ HOU 121
- LFeb 6, 2025HOU 114 @ MIN 127
- LDec 27, 2024MIN 113 @ HOU 112
- WNov 26, 2024HOU 117 @ MIN 111
- LApr 2, 2024HOU 106 @ MIN 113
- LFeb 4, 2024HOU 90 @ MIN 111
- LJan 5, 2024MIN 122 @ HOU 95
W/L from Houston Rockets's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+3 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in HOU's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)HOU 62%
- Margin model (weight 50%)HOU 62%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)HOU 62%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.