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Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Oklahoma City Thunder's higher Elo rating (1633 vs 1558) and Oklahoma City Thunder's home form (+11.4 average margin at home) drive most of this prediction towards Oklahoma City Thunder. Cleveland Cavaliers' better point margin this season (+5.0 vs -0.5 per game) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| OKC win probability | 66% | – |
| Spread | OKC -5.4 | – |
| Total points | 225.2 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| CLE | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 4 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 121.0 | 106.5 |
| Points against / game | 116.0 | 107.0 |
| Average margin | 5.0 | -0.5 |
OKC at home · CLE on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| OKC at home | 3-0 · 109.7–99.7 | 40-10 |
| CLE away | 1-2 · 117.7–113.0 | 27-23 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WFeb 22, 2026CLE 113 @ OKC 121
- WJan 19, 2026OKC 136 @ CLE 104
- WJan 16, 2025CLE 114 @ OKC 134
- LJan 8, 2025OKC 122 @ CLE 129
- WNov 8, 2023CLE 120 @ OKC 128
- WOct 27, 2023OKC 108 @ CLE 105
- WJan 27, 2023CLE 100 @ OKC 112
- LDec 10, 2022OKC 102 @ CLE 110
- LJan 22, 2022OKC 87 @ CLE 94
- LJan 15, 2022CLE 107 @ OKC 102
W/L from Oklahoma City Thunder's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+8 pts
- Season record-2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Recent point differential-0 pts
Change in OKC's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)OKC 68%
- Margin model (weight 50%)OKC 63%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)OKC 69%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.