· Smoothie King Center
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
New Orleans Pelicans' higher Elo rating (1443 vs 1347) and New Orleans Pelicans' better season record (33% vs 17% wins) drive most of this prediction towards New Orleans Pelicans.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NO win probability | 73% | – |
| Spread | NO -8.1 | – |
| Total points | 242.0 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| UTAH | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Conference rank | 14 | 11 |
| Last 10 | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Streak | L4 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 108.7 | 119.7 |
| Points against / game | 118.8 | 117.8 |
| Average margin | -10.2 | 1.8 |
NO at home · UTAH on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NO at home | 2-2 · 116.0–111.5 | 17-24 |
| UTAH away | 0-1 · 103.0–123.0 | 8-33 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LOct 23, 2026NO 119 @ UTAH 120
- WApr 7, 2026UTAH 137 @ NO 156
- WFeb 28, 2026NO 115 @ UTAH 105
- WFeb 26, 2026NO 129 @ UTAH 118
- WMar 2, 2025NO 128 @ UTAH 121
- WJan 20, 2025UTAH 119 @ NO 123
- WJan 17, 2025UTAH 123 @ NO 136
- WJan 23, 2024UTAH 124 @ NO 153
- WDec 28, 2023UTAH 105 @ NO 112
- LNov 27, 2023NO 112 @ UTAH 114
W/L from New Orleans Pelicans's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+10 pts
- Season record+2 pts
- Home / road form+2 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in NO's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)NO 71%
- Margin model (weight 50%)NO 74%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NO 72%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.