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Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Memphis Grizzlies' higher Elo rating (1448 vs 1387) and Memphis Grizzlies' better season record (100% vs 33% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Memphis Grizzlies. Indiana Pacers' road form (-4.4 average margin away) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM win probability | 64% | – |
| Spread | MEM -4.8 | – |
| Total points | 238.9 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| IND | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 6-0 |
| Conference rank | 11 | 1 |
| Last 10 | 2-4 | 6-0 |
| Streak | L3 | W6 |
| Points for / game | 116.7 | 121.2 |
| Points against / game | 119.8 | 106.0 |
| Average margin | -3.2 | 15.2 |
MEM at home · IND on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM at home | 2-0 · 129.5–104.0 | 14-27 |
| IND away | 2-2 · 121.5–121.0 | 8-33 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WMar 1, 2026MEM 125 @ IND 106
- WOct 25, 2025IND 103 @ MEM 128
- LFeb 20, 2025MEM 113 @ IND 127
- WDec 1, 2024IND 121 @ MEM 136
- LJan 28, 2024MEM 110 @ IND 116
- WDec 21, 2023IND 103 @ MEM 116
- WJan 29, 2023IND 100 @ MEM 112
- WJan 14, 2023MEM 130 @ IND 112
- WMar 24, 2022IND 103 @ MEM 133
- WMar 15, 2022MEM 135 @ IND 102
W/L from Memphis Grizzlies's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+7 pts
- Season record+2 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs-0 pts
Change in MEM's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)MEM 67%
- Margin model (weight 50%)MEM 62%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MEM 65%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.