· Madison Square Garden
15%
85%
15% CHI win85% NY win
Predicted winner
New York Knicks
High confidenceHigh: the favourite is at least 75%.
Why
New York Knicks' higher Elo rating (1612 vs 1394) and New York Knicks' better season record (33% vs 17% wins) drive most of this prediction towards New York Knicks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NY win probability | 85% | – |
| Spread | NY -13.8 | – |
| Total points | 229.2 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Chicago Bulls
W132–125@ MIL
L120–124v WSH
L99–134@ BOS
L127–133v NY
L111–125@ BOS
New York Knicks
L103–107@ BOS
L102–111v ORL
W111–97v DET
W133–127@ CHI
L93–98@ PHI
Season so far
| CHI | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Conference rank | 14 | 10 |
| Last 10 | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 113.5 | 107.0 |
| Points against / game | 129.3 | 107.7 |
| Average margin | -15.8 | -0.7 |
NY at home · CHI on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NY at home | 1-2 · 104.3–104.7 | 38-12 |
| CHI away | 1-3 · 108.5–129.8 | 13-28 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Chicago Bulls
5.0 days
Last played Boston Celtics, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · New York Knicks
5.0 days
Last played Philadelphia 76ers, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
7 NY wins3 CHI wins
- WOct 28, 2026NY 133 @ CHI 127
- WApr 3, 2026CHI 96 @ NY 136
- WFeb 22, 2026NY 105 @ CHI 99
- WNov 2, 2025CHI 116 @ NY 128
- LOct 31, 2025NY 125 @ CHI 135
- WFeb 20, 2025CHI 111 @ NY 113
- LJan 4, 2025NY 126 @ CHI 139
- LNov 13, 2024CHI 124 @ NY 123
- WApr 14, 2024CHI 119 @ NY 120
- WApr 9, 2024NY 128 @ CHI 117
W/L from New York Knicks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours CHIfavours NY →
- Elo strength rating+19 pts
- Season record+3 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in NY's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)NY 84%
- Margin model (weight 50%)NY 86%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NY 83%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.